Key Takeaways
- Lucid reports third-quarter results after Monday’s close, with consensus revenue near $399 million, up from $337 million a year earlier.
- Deliveries of 3,806 missed the 4,687 estimate as Lucid cut production to 2,954 and ran down inventory under its operating reset.
- Gross margin over the past four quarters was negative 100.6%, so robotaxi plans with Bolt and 11.5% shareholder Uber remain long-dated.
- Monday’s free cash flow, gross margin and any restored outlook will show whether the $1.4 billion cash reset is working.
Lucid Group (LCID) gets its report card after the close on Monday.
Shares jumped 10% on Friday to $3.29. That bounce barely dents a 53% slide over the past three months.
The company is deep in what it calls an operating reset. It dropped a shift at its Arizona factory and pulled its guidance in May. And it keeps leaning on credit from an affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, its largest shareholder.
Uber (UBER) has a big stake in how this goes. It reported an 11.5% passive stake in Lucid in April, and the two unveiled a Gravity-based robotaxi with Nuro at CES in January.
So Monday’s numbers matter for more than one cap table.
Fewer cars, less inventory
Third-quarter deliveries came in at 3,806, well short of the 4,687 analysts expected. They also slipped from 3,953 in the second quarter. Production fell harder, to 2,954.
That gap was deliberate. Lucid delivered 852 more cars than it built as it worked down inventory, and it cut the second shift at its AMP-1 plant in June.
The company also said demand for the Gravity SUV “continued to regain momentum” during the quarter.
Wall Street still expects revenue to grow from a year ago…
Consensus sits near $399 million, up from $337 million. Deliveries fell about 7% from a year earlier, so that estimate leans on a richer Gravity mix and higher prices per car.
The reset is about cash
Lucid is targeting $1.4 billion of cash flow improvements this year. The levers are less inventory, lower capex and leaner operations, including the 12% workforce cut announced in February.
Liquidity is the other half. On October 6, Lucid drew $400 million from a delayed-draw term loan with Ayar Third Investment Company, a PIF affiliate.
That kind of support has limits, though. Back in July, Lucid had to deny a report that it was weighing a take-private deal or a Chapter 11 filing.
So how deep is the hole the reset has to fill?
Monday’s free cash flow needs to land clearly better than the second quarter’s. Anything flat would suggest the reset is mostly running down inventory, which can only happen once.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Lucid. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Lucid, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Lucid’s Analyst Ratings
Robotaxis can’t fix margins yet
Over the past four quarters, Lucid’s gross margin was negative 100.6%. In plain terms, it cost about twice as much to build and deliver each car as Lucid collected for it.
Rivian makes the gap obvious. It delivered 19,248 vehicles in the same quarter and booked $176 million of gross profit.
Lucid’s growth story has moved toward autonomy. In September it partnered with Bolt to deploy at least 25,000 autonomous vehicles across Europe, and it plans to open its first three stores in France in early 2027.
Those deals are years from the income statement, while this is the margin they inherit:
My take: Friday’s pop looks like a bet on hope going into the print. I like the Bolt deal and the Uber relationship, but neither changes what each Gravity costs today. Until free cash flow improves and gross margin moves meaningfully, I’d treat rallies as trading events and expect more capital raises down the road.
The checkpoint is Monday’s 5:30 pm ET call. Watch free cash flow, gross margin and whether management puts a full-year outlook back on the table after pulling it in May.
So what is Lucid stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
