Key Takeaways
- NIO delivered 34,246 vehicles in October, down from 37,408 in September and about 15% below October 2025.
- Hitting its goal of more than 40,000 monthly deliveries in the fourth quarter now requires roughly 43,000 a month in November and December.
- Geely is taking 30% of NIO Power at about RMB 16 billion, a valuation worth more than a quarter of NIO’s market value.
- Third-quarter results, expected around November 25, will show whether vehicle margin holds near the second quarter’s 18.5%.
NIO Inc. (NIO) has a math problem.
In September, management set a goal of more than 40,000 deliveries a month on average in the fourth quarter. October came in at 34,246.
That was down from 37,408 in September and about 15% below the 40,397 NIO delivered in October 2025. To hit the goal, it now needs roughly 43,000 a month in November and December.
The stock rose 6% on Friday to $3.39. It is still down 26% over the past three months.
October missed the run rate
Brand mix tells the story. The NIO brand delivered 18,125 vehicles, ONVO 8,383 and FIREFLY 7,738.
ONVO is the soft spot. Its September deliveries fell 42.5% from a year earlier, and October showed no clear rebound.
Meanwhile, the flagship keeps carrying the load. The All-New ES8 passed 160,000 deliveries on October 23, roughly 13 months after launch.
Still, the third quarter itself should look fine. Deliveries of 109,178 landed inside the 108,000 to 111,000 guide, which points to revenue near the RMB 33.29 billion to RMB 34.05 billion NIO forecast…
The fourth quarter is where October’s shortfall would show up first, because analysts built their numbers on the 40,000 monthly pace.
Geely buys into the swap network
Bigger strategic news came in late September. Geely Holding Group, the private parent of Geely Auto, is taking a 30% stake in NIO Power, NIO’s battery-swapping and charging unit, at a post-money valuation of about RMB 16 billion, or roughly $2.4 billion.
It pays with its own swap business, Yiyi Power, plus RMB 640 million in cash. NIO keeps a controlling 63.6%, and it will take 10% of Geely’s charging arm, Haohan Energy.
Scale explains the deal. Yiyi runs around 470 swap stations, mostly for taxis and ride-hailing fleets, while NIO Power is aiming for 10,000 stations by 2030. Geely also plans consumer models that can swap at NIO stations.
That valuation stands out next to NIO’s own. With about 2.5 billion shares at $3.39, the whole company is worth roughly $8.5 billion, so the swap unit alone accounts for more than a quarter of it.
What has the network cost so far?
A second automaker sharing the stations, and some of the bill, is the first real sign NIO won’t have to fund this alone.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on NIO. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on NIO, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See NIO’s Analyst Ratings
Margins carry the story now
The second quarter showed what scale can do. Revenue jumped 69.1% to RMB 32.14 billion, vehicle margin climbed to 18.5% from 10.3% and the net loss narrowed to RMB 528 million.
Management expects vehicle margin to hold near that level in the third and fourth quarters, even as component costs rise. That’s the claim the next report has to back up.
The turn looks like this:
There’s a reporting wrinkle too. Under IFRS, NIO’s first-half net loss was RMB 1.42 billion, wider than the U.S. GAAP figure.
My take: October makes the 40,000 monthly goal look stretched, and I’d expect NIO to miss it unless November jumps. But the margin turn and the Geely deal matter more for the stock than one soft month. If vehicle margin holds near 18% while volume grows, today’s price looks too low. Should ONVO keep sliding, it doesn’t.
The next checkpoint is the third-quarter report, expected around November 25. November deliveries follow on December 1 and will show whether the fourth-quarter goal is still alive.
So what is NIO stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
