Key Takeaways
- An estimate shared by Daytona CEO Ivan Burazin puts Meta’s Muse at 65,000 CPUs and 75PB of DRAM, about $2.8 billion of infrastructure, for every 100 million users.
- Scaled 30x to Facebook’s 3 billion users, that comes to about $84 billion, more than Meta’s $69.7 billion of capex in 2025.
- The memory alone would take about 5% of a year’s world DRAM output, based on one widely shared estimate of global supply.
- Micron’s gross margin reached 80.7% in fiscal 2026, and analysts expect its revenue to roughly double to $275 billion in fiscal 2027.
Meta Platforms (META) gives every Muse user a computer of their own in the cloud. Now someone has added up what that costs.
Daytona CEO Ivan Burazin, in a post on X:
“@auchenberg calculated that Muse needs 65,000 CPUs and 75PB of DRAM to serve 100 million users. That’s $2.8B in infra for one app.”
And: “Just do the math. There aren’t enough CPUs in the world to run all of this.”
Box (BOX) CEO Aaron Levie picked it up on Thursday: “The compute needed for the stage of AI we’re about to enter is going to be insane.”
Elon Musk’s reply? “People have no idea.”
So let’s do the math
Facebook has over 3 billion users, 30x Muse’s 100 million. (Burazin wrote “nearly 300x,” but the math says 30x. That’s still plenty.) At 30x:
- 65,000 CPUs becomes 1.95 million
- 75PB of DRAM becomes 2,250PB, or 2.25 billion GB
- $2.8 billion of infrastructure becomes $84 billion
That last number is a lot, even for Meta. Its capital spending went from $18.7 billion in 2021 to $69.7 billion in 2025, and it nearly doubled in the last year alone…
So Facebook-scale Muse would cost more than a full year of Meta’s capex at its 2025 level.
On Thursday’s episode of the Decoder podcast, “OpenAI has a Muse problem,” Nilay Patel, The Verge’s editor-in-chief, asked: “how much of the economy does Zuck have to win in order to give away millions upon millions of free tokens and eight gigs of RAM to everyone in the cloud?”
The world doesn’t make that much memory
A widely shared post by X user @DirtyTesLa, which Elon Musk replied to, puts the world’s output at only about 45 billion GB of DRAM a year.
Divide 2.25 billion GB by 45 billion GB, and you get 5%. So one app on one platform would take about 5% of a year’s world DRAM output. And as Burazin pointed out, Meta has “more platforms with similar numbers.”
Isn’t this one guess?
The obvious objection is that this is one outside estimate. Meta can also share, cache or compress memory across users who aren’t active at the same time.
Here’s the thing: the estimate already seems to allow for that. Each Muse user’s cloud computer comes with 8GB of memory (Patel’s “eight gigs of RAM”). But 75PB across 100 million users works out to 0.75GB each, less than a tenth of that. So the estimate appears to assume that fewer than 1 in 10 of those computers are running at any moment. (That’s my reading of the math, since Burazin’s post doesn’t give the method.)
Micron is already cashing in
Either way, memory is the part that’s already in short supply, and that shortage is what Micron Technology (MU) has been living on. As investor Dave Blundin put it on the Moonshots with Peter Diamandis podcast: “literally the entire constraint to progress in all fields is now tied up in one thing, just RAM.”
You can see it in Micron’s gross margin, which went from 2.7% in fiscal 2023 to an extraordinary 80.7% in fiscal 2026 (the year to August).
And analysts expect more. Micron’s revenue more than tripled to $133 billion in fiscal 2026, and the consensus calls for $275 billion in fiscal 2027 and $319 billion in fiscal 2028.
Muse launched only in September, so a Facebook-scale version is unlikely to be in those numbers yet.
The same math helps SK Hynix (SKHY) on memory. On CPUs, it helps AMD (AMD), whose chips run Muse’s cloud computers.
The risk is one that memory investors know well: the cycle. Micron’s gross margin fell from 45.2% in fiscal 2022 to 2.7% in fiscal 2023.
So does the math hold up?
I think it does. Even read generously, Muse at Facebook’s scale would cost more than Meta’s entire 2025 capex and take about 5% of a year’s world DRAM supply, and that’s before Instagram or WhatsApp. Meta can afford the bill, and I’d expect Micron to collect on it.
Of course, nobody outside Meta knows yet how many people will use Muse every day. Meta’s next earnings call should show what it’s spending on Muse, and Micron’s next report will show whether shortage pricing is holding.
So what is Micron stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Micron could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
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