Joby Aviation Stock Is Down 50% in 2026. Here Is What the Certification Calendar Actually Means for Investors.

Key Stats for Joby Aviation Stock

• 52-Week Range: $6.63 to $19.98
• Street Mean Target: ~$11
• Street High Target: $18
• YTD Return: -50%
• Total Liquidity: ~$2.3B (cash and short-term investments as of Q2 2026)
• Fwd 2-Yr Revenue CAGR: ~103%

Value your favorite stocks like JOBY with 5 years of analysts’ forecasts using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>

Why Joby Aviation Exists and Why the Stock Is Having a Difficult Year

Joby Aviation (JOBY) is building an all-electric, vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, commonly called an eVTOL, designed to carry passengers across cities quickly, quietly, and without the per-flight cost of a traditional helicopter.

The company’s aircraft takes off and lands like a helicopter but cruises like a plane, covering distances of up to 100 miles at speeds around 200 miles per hour.

Joby intends to operate its own air taxi service, and it also plans to sell aircraft to other operators over time. The vision is compelling, but the path to commercial revenue runs entirely through one gate: FAA type certification, which the company is still working to complete.

Joby reported its strongest quarterly progress yet in the fifth and final stage of FAA Type Certification during Q2, with five aircraft now flying, including its first FAA-conforming aircraft, and 12 more in various stages of production.

First eIPP flights are expected in September in Texas, targeting first passengers before year-end, and the company reduced its manufacturing non-conformance rate by nearly 40% during the first half of 2026 as it moved from research and development builds toward low-rate production. None of that has been enough to support the stock.

Shares are down roughly 50% year-to-date and trading near their 52-week low, as investors who bought the eVTOL story at higher prices have grown impatient with a timeline that keeps getting pushed back.

The revenue chart below puts the financial reality in perspective, and it is important to read it honestly.

Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $115 million to $125 million, nearly all of it generated by Blade, the helicopter and air shuttle business Joby acquired. The eVTOL aircraft itself has not yet contributed commercial revenue.

Every bar on the chart beyond the current year is an estimate built on the assumption that certification arrives, commercial service launches, and the fleet scales as planned.

Consensus projects revenue reaching roughly $220M in 2027, $435M in 2028, and nearly $2 billion by 2030, but each of those numbers depends heavily on regulatory and operational milestones that remain ahead of the company, not behind it.

See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Joby Aviation stock (It’s free) >>>

The Cash Position Is the Most Important Number Right Now

For a pre-commercial company burning through capital while it completes certification and builds out manufacturing, the most critical question is always runway: how much cash does the company have, and how long does it last?

The chart below shows Joby’s cash and cash equivalents position on the balance sheet going back to 2021.

The balance sheet cash line tells only part of the story. As of June 30, 2026, Joby held $2.3 billion in total cash and short-term investments, a figure that includes short-term investments not captured in the cash and equivalents line alone.

For the second half of 2026, the company expects to use $385 million to $415 million in cash, primarily for certification, manufacturing, eIPP operations, and commercialization readiness. At that burn rate, the current liquidity position provides meaningful runway well into the commercialization phase, assuming no significant delays to the certification timeline.

Joby also recently completed a $3.1 billion term loan, the first-ever publicly syndicated delayed-draw facility backed by high-performance computing infrastructure, which further reinforces the financial foundation heading into the most consequential stretch of the company’s history.

See how Joby Aviation performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>

What Wall Street Thinks About JOBY at Current Prices

Coverage of Joby is thinner than most stocks at its market cap, with only nine analyst estimates on record, reflecting how difficult it is to model a company whose revenue depends almost entirely on a regulatory outcome that has no precise timeline.

With the stock near $7, the Street mean target of around $11 implies upside of roughly 50%, and the median sits closer to $11.50. Understanding the full range of analyst views requires looking at the targets chart below.

The high target of $18 reflects genuine optimism that Joby will become the first scaled commercial eVTOL operator and capture meaningful market share in urban air mobility.

The low target of $6 sits just below where the stock trades today, signaling that some analysts view the current price as already generous given the execution risk that remains.

The mix of 5 holds and 3 underperforms or sells alongside just 3 buy-equivalent ratings is not a ringing endorsement, and it reflects a Street that is watching the certification timeline carefully before committing more broadly.

Should You Buy Joby Aviation Stock?

Joby is one of the most genuinely interesting long-term technology stories in the public markets, but interesting and investable are not the same thing at every price and every stage.

The company is doing real work, making measurable progress on certification, and has enough cash to reach the commercialization phase if execution stays on track. What investors are being asked to accept is that all of the forward revenue estimates, the ones showing nearly $2 billion by 2030, materialize roughly as modeled.

The stock’s 50% decline this year reflects growing skepticism about that timeline, and at around $7, the mean target of $11 offers a reasonable entry point for patient investors who believe the FAA milestone will arrive sooner rather than later.

See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Joby Aviation stock (It’s free!) >>>

Looking for New Opportunities?

• See which stocks billionaire investors are buying to follow the smart money.
• Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
• The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.

Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!