Key Takeaways
- Joby Aviation stock has lost 66.5% this year, yet H.C. Wainwright still rates it a Buy with an $18 target, 256% above the price.
- Blade had a record quarter, and Joby raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $135 million to $140 million.
- The Street’s average target has fallen from $12 to $10 in a year. At $18, Joby would trade at 149x forward sales, against a 91x average over the past year.
- Joby keeps funding its losses with new shares, which makes $18 hard to back until FAA pilots start flying its aircraft for credit.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock has lost 66.5% this year, and H.C. Wainwright hasn’t budged. Analyst Amit Dayal still rates it a Buy with an $18 price target, the highest on the Street and 256% above the $5.05 close on Nov. 4.
Share Sales, Then a Factory Question
On Aug. 11, Joby agreed to buy defense company Resonant Sciences for about $500 million, mostly in cash. The same day, it set up a $750 million at-the-market stock program.
Barclays then cut the stock to Underweight with a $4 target on Oct. 8, doubting Joby’s factory can keep up.
Wainwright Is Looking a Decade Out
In a September note, H.C. Wainwright modeled Joby’s revenue climbing from $122 million in 2026 to $14.2 billion by 2036, with gross margin rising from 25% to around 50% by 2035.
And the third quarter was a good one. Blade, Joby’s passenger business, flew a record 44,000-plus passengers, and Joby raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $135 million to $140 million, from $115 million to $125 million.
TIKR Tracks 11 Analysts on Joby Aviation. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Joby Aviation, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Joby Aviation’s Analyst Ratings
Does Joby’s $18 Target Add Up?
Targets run from Barclays’ $4 to Wainwright’s $18. On Nov. 5, Needham cut its target to $10 from $15, and Canaccord Genuity upgraded the stock to Buy while cutting its target to $7 from $11.50.
The average target has fallen from $12 to $10 over the past year, though $10 is still 98% above the price.
Analysts expect revenue to climb from $121 million in 2026 to $432 million in 2028.
Joby’s new outlook is above that 2026 figure, so expect the estimate to rise. But the 2028 estimate is 29% lower than a year ago.
With no earnings to price, Joby traded at 40x forward sales at the Nov. 2 close, against a 91x average over the past year. At $18, it would trade at 149x.
The Share Count Is the Catch
Joby ended September with $2.2 billion in cash and short-term investments. That includes about $128 million it raised selling stock in the quarter, CFO Rodrigo Brumana said on the call. Its share count has climbed from 784.2 million at the end of 2024 to 1.01 billion at Sept. 30, according to its 10-Q. Analysts expect Joby to burn $761 million of free cash flow in 2027 alone, on top of what it pays for Resonant.
Joby is delivering on Blade and on certification testing, but it keeps paying for the gap with new shares. To me, $18 is a bet on Wainwright’s 2036 revenue, and today’s shareholders will own a smaller slice of it with every quarter of stock sales.
The next step is the FAA’s own pilots. Joby plans to train them and finish its own flight tests first, and CEO JoeBen Bevirt said on the call, “We expect both of those to happen in the first half of next year.” Once FAA pilots start flying for credit, I’d take a fresh look at $18.
So what is Joby Aviation stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
