Key Stats for Caterpillar Stock
- 52-Week Range: $354 to $947
- Current Price: $904
- Street Mean Target: $937
- Street High Target: $1,165
- Analyst Consensus: 14 Buy, 1 Outperform, 11 Hold, 2 Sell
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $1,250
Caterpillar Stock Beats Q1 Estimates by 20% While Its Backlog Hits an All-Time Record
Caterpillar (CAT) delivered $17.4 billion in Q1 2026 revenue, a 22% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EPS of $5.54 came in nearly 20% above the Street estimate of $4.62.
The beat was broad-based but the most arresting figure was not on the income statement.
Backlog reached a record $63 billion at quarter-end, up 79% from Q1 2025 and up approximately $12 billion sequentially.
All three primary segments contributed to both the year-over-year and sequential backlog growth.
Power and Energy posted sales of $7.0 billion, up 22%, with power generation surging 48% on demand for large data center generator sets and turbines.
Construction Industries sales rose 38% to $7.2 billion, driven partly by a seasonal dealer inventory build that was higher than management expected.
Resource Industries grew 4% to $3.8 billion, coming in slightly below expectations due to timing of customer deliveries.
Adjusted operating profit margin was 18.0%, a 30 basis point compression year-over-year despite tariff costs of approximately $600 million in the quarter, better than the $800 million estimate management had given in January.
The company also raised its full-year 2026 sales and revenue outlook to low double-digit growth, improved its free cash flow guidance to above the $9.5 billion reported in 2025, and announced an expansion of large reciprocating engine capacity from 2x to nearly 3x 2024 levels.
CEO Joe Creed described the scope of the order acceleration directly on the Q1 2026 earnings call: “Since we first announced our initial capacity expansion plans in January of 2024, our large reciprocating engine backlog has grown by more than 3.5x.”
Orders in Q1 were an all-time record, with Power and Energy tracking ahead of the company’s 2026 capacity growth plans.
Caterpillar also raised its long-term growth targets, lifting the enterprise revenue CAGR goal to between 6% and 9% from a 2024 baseline through 2030, and increasing the power generation sales target to more than 3x 2024 levels by the same date.
30% EPS Growth for Three Straight Quarters and a Street That Is Almost Evenly Split
Twenty-six analysts now cover Caterpillar stock, with 14 rating it Buy, 1 Outperform, 11 Hold, and 2 Sell.
The Street mean target of $937 implies roughly 4% upside from the current price of $904, with the high target at $1,165 representing around 29% potential upside for the highest-conviction bulls.
Consensus EPS for Q2 2026 stands at $6.15, representing approximately 30% year-over-year growth from the $4.72 reported in Q2 2025.
Q3 2026 consensus is $6.39, roughly 29% above the prior-year quarter, and Q4 2026 consensus is $6.68, approximately 29% above Q4 2025.
That is three consecutive quarters projecting around 30% EPS growth after a Q1 that already delivered 30%.
Revenue consensus supports the trajectory: Q2 2026 is estimated at around $19 billion, approximately 15% above Q2 2025, with Q3 and Q4 both projecting roughly 8% to 10% growth.
UBS, which lifted its price target to $900 from $677 while maintaining a Neutral rating, captured the split in Street conviction accurately: strong demand in power and energy is driving backlog growth, but elevated long-term earnings expectations leave less room for additional upside surprises.
The bear case is not that the business is deteriorating — it is that the strong backlog and accelerating EPS are already embedded in $904.
Full-year 2026 tariff costs are estimated at $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion, down from the $2.6 billion estimate given last quarter, which represents a partial earnings tailwind that has not fully flowed through to revised targets.
With 30% EPS growth projected through Q4 on three consecutive quarters, the near-term picture for Caterpillar stock reads as fairly valued, with the upside case belonging to investors willing to hold through the multi-year capacity deployment.
Is Caterpillar Stock Undervalued in 2026? What TIKR’s $1,249 Target Says
TIKR’s base case values Caterpillar at approximately $1,249 by December 2030, implying around 38% total return from the current price of $904, or roughly 7% annualized over approximately 4 and a half years.
The low case, built on revenue CAGR of around 6% and net income margins near 16%, reaches approximately $1,239 by the end of 2030, a roughly 37% total return at an IRR of around 4% annually.
The mid case assumes revenue CAGR of around 7% and net income margins near 17%, producing the $1,249 target and approximately 7% annualized.
If power generation follows its expanded capacity trajectory and margins push toward 18%, the high case reaches approximately $1,984, a roughly 119% total return at near 10% annualized.
The mid and low cases converge at essentially the same stock price, which is the key signal: CAT stock is already pricing in most of the near-term EPS acceleration, so further returns depend on how far the multi-year capacity story compounds beyond 2026.
On a four-and-a-half-year view, Caterpillar stock is undervalued at current levels — the mid-case IRR of approximately 7% represents a meaningful return for a business with a $63 billion backlog, three-times capacity growth through 2030, and an earnings base that management believes can sustain positive cash payback on the full investment before the decade ends.
Is Caterpillar stock a buy right now?
Caterpillar stock presents a split case: the Street mean target of $937 implies only around 4% near-term upside from $904, and 11 of 26 analysts rate it Hold.
However, TIKR’s base case target of approximately $1,249 by December 2030 implies around 7% annualized return, and three consecutive quarters of around 30% EPS growth are projected through year-end.
The Q1 beat of nearly 20% above consensus and a record $63 billion backlog support the longer-horizon case.
What do analysts say about CAT stock?
Of 26 covering analysts, 14 rate CAT a Buy and 11 rate it a Hold, with 2 Sell ratings. The mean price target stands at $937.
UBS lifted its target to $900 from $677 while keeping a Neutral rating, citing strong energy-driven backlog growth but limited room for further surprises given elevated long-term earnings expectations.
The high target of $1,165 reflects the conviction of analysts who believe the power generation capacity expansion will compound beyond consensus assumptions.
Should You Invest in Caterpillar Inc.?
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