Key Takeaways
- IonQ shares have fallen 56% since October 2025. That includes a 9% drop on Oct. 12, after the company agreed to buy cybersecurity company Elisity in an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3 billion.
- Rosenblatt Securities kept its Buy rating and $100 target the same day. That’s 176% above the Oct. 12 close and matches the Street’s highest target.
- Analysts expect revenue to more than triple to $455 million in 2026 and reach $1.06 billion in 2028, but their 2027 loss estimate has widened over the past 90 days.
- The call looks plausible but stretched: $100 implies 58x forward sales against 21x today, while losses are expected to widen.
IonQ (IONQ) has lost 56% since its October 2025 high, including a 9% drop on Monday, Oct. 12, after it agreed to buy cybersecurity company Elisity in stock. Rosenblatt Securities kept its Buy rating and $100 target the same day, 176% above the $36.27 close.
Cash out, shares in
The stock closed at $82.09 on Oct. 13, 2025. It slid with the tech sell-off early this year to $26.59 on March 30, then bounced to $53.26 by June 30.
Since then, the bear case is cash and shares. On July 31, IonQ closed its $1.8 billion SkyWater acquisition, using up about $1 billion of its cash. On Aug. 5, it reported second-quarter revenue up 287% to $80.1 million. But the operating loss more than doubled to $337.2 million, and the average share count rose to 367.7 million from 251.0 million a year earlier.
Then came Elisity: up to $1.3 billion in stock, including up to $150 million in earnouts. IonQ hasn’t disclosed Elisity’s revenue.
Rosenblatt is still at $100
Rosenblatt’s John McPeake, whose $100 matches the Street’s highest target, expects Elisity to add less than 10% of IonQ’s projected 2027 revenue. His focus stays on the Superion 256 system IonQ plans to launch next year.
Does $100 add up?
The rest of the Street barely moved as the stock fell. The consensus target was $65 a year ago and is $67 today, with 12 of 14 analysts at Buy or Outperform.
Even the lowest target, $42, sits above today’s price.
Revenue is the bull case. Analysts expect it to more than triple to $455 million this year and reach $1.06 billion in 2028:
Much of that is the deal: IonQ now guides to $450 million to $460 million for 2026, about $170 million of it from SkyWater. By Rosenblatt’s math, Elisity won’t move 2027 much.
Losses are the catch: the consensus loss for 2027 has widened to $3.40 a share, from $2.36 90 days ago.
With no earnings to price, IonQ trades on forward sales. At [21x], it’s the cheapest it’s been in five years, against a 132x average.
Rosenblatt’s $100 works out to 58x the sales analysts expect over the next 12 months. That’s below the average, which comes from years when sales were tiny. But more of those sales now come from a foundry, which Bank of America valued at 2x sales in September.
Plausible, but it needs a re-rating
The risk is more of the same: more shares and bigger losses.
I think Rosenblatt’s call is plausible but stretched. Revenue estimates point to a much bigger business, and the multiple is at a five-year low. But $100 needs investors to pay far more than [21x] sales while losses are expected to widen.
The next test is IonQ’s third-quarter report, its first to include SkyWater. If the combined business tracks toward the top of its guidance, and the 256-qubit systems stay on schedule for 2027, $100 starts to look a lot more reasonable.
So what is IonQ stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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