Key Stats for Intuitive Surgical Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -3.7%
- 52-Week Range: $425 to $603.9
- Current Price: $472.2
What Happened?
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), maker of the da Vinci robotic surgery system, delivered its third consecutive year of pro forma EPS growth above 20% in 2025, yet its stock sits at $472.16, some 21.8% below its 52-week high of $603.88.
The trigger was the January 22 Q4 earnings call, where the company reported full-year revenue of $10.1 billion, up 21% year-over-year, and free cash flow of $2.5 billion, nearly double the $1.3 billion generated in 2024.
The engine behind the report was da Vinci 5, the company’s newest robotic surgery platform, which drove 303 of 532 system placements in Q4 alone and pushed average system selling prices to $1.68 million, up from $1.6 million a year earlier.
CFO Jamie Samath stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “2025 pro forma EPS increased 22%, marking the third consecutive year of pro forma EPS growth above 20,” connecting directly to $2.3 billion in share repurchases executed during the year at an average price of $478 per share.
On March 2, Intuitive completed its acquisition of ab medica’s da Vinci and Ion distribution operations across Italy, Spain, Portugal, and associated territories, adding roughly 250 employees and bringing those markets under direct company control just as 2026 guidance calls for 13% to 15% procedure growth.
Wall Street’s Take on ISRG Stock
The near-doubling of free cash flow to $2.5 billion in 2025, driven by da Vinci 5 procedure adoption and capex normalization after the platform buildout, directly sets up an even sharper FCF step-up in 2026.
Moreover, consensus models $11.54 billion in 2026 revenue, a 14.6% increase, with FCF projected at $4.04 billion, a 62.1% jump that would push FCF margin from 24.7% to 35.0% as manufacturing spend normalizes.
EPS normalized reached $8.93 in 2025 and consensus sees $10.03 in 2026 and $11.45 in 2027, a trajectory supported by 13%-to-15% procedure growth guidance and the March 2 direct-distribution acquisition across Italy, Spain, and Portugal.
Seventeen analysts rate ISRG a buy, eight call it an outperform, and nine hold, with a mean price target of $609.82 that implies 29.2% upside from $472.16, a consensus built around the dV5 upgrade cycle reaching international markets and the ASC expansion gaining traction.
The spread between the $378.00 low target and the $750.00 high tells the actual debate: bears anchor on China competitive erosion and tariff pressure on gross margin; bulls price in cardiac procedure clearance and the $9-million procedure line-of-sight growing from $8 million in 2025.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s mid-case model prices ISRG at $873.30, an 85% total return over 4.8 years at a 13.7% annualized IRR, assuming 12.5% revenue CAGR and net income margins expanding from 31.8% to 32.9% as platform mix normalizes.
The market is discounting a stock 21.8% below its 52-week high while consensus FCF is set to cross $4 billion, a combination last seen when ISRG was building toward its previous multi-year re-rating.
The operational proof is the $2.3 billion buyback executed at an average $478 per share in 2025, management’s own signal that the stock is undervalued at current levels.
The signal is the My Intuitive+ digital subscription renewal cycle beginning around Q2 2026, which will reveal whether customers pay for the simulation, Telepresence, and case-insights package that came free with da Vinci 5, adding a recurring revenue layer not yet fully priced into estimates.
The risk is China: with roughly 273 systems remaining in the current government quota, deteriorating tender win ratios and provincial preference for local robotic suppliers could compress both system placements and procedure growth below the 13% floor of 2026 guidance.
Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare is expected to rule on new robotic procedure reimbursement in June 2026, a decision that would unlock a market where capital challenges already pressured placements and watch the Q2 earnings procedure growth number for confirmation.
Should You Invest in Intuitive Surgical, Inc.?
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