Key Stats for Sempra Stock
- Past-Week Performance: +2.7%
- 52-Week Range: $ to $
- Current Price: $
What Happened?
Sempra (SRE), a regulated energy utility holding company, crossed a strategic inflection point when it launched a record $65 billion capital plan on February 26 and simultaneously announced it needs zero new common equity to fund it, with shares trading at $95.11 near their 52-week high of $97.45.
On February 26, Sempra reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.28 against a $1.17 consensus estimate while unveiling the $65 billion 2026 to 2030 capital plan, a 17% increase over its prior plan, anchored by Oncor, its Texas electric transmission and distribution utility, raising its own five-year spending target to $47.5 billion from $36 billion.
Oncor’s interconnection queue, the pipeline of power customers requesting grid access, surged to 273 gigawatts with 255 gigawatts attributed to data centers, up from 226 gigawatts last quarter, driving an 18% projected rate base compound annual growth rate at Sempra Texas through 2030 and a $3.5 billion customer collateral balance versus roughly $200 million in 2018.
Jeff Martin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “we’re excited to introduce a new record capital plan of $65 billion for 2026 to 2030, representing a 17% increase to last year’s plan,” directly tied to the acceleration of the Permian Basin Reliability Plan and the 765 kV strategic transmission expansion already in regulatory motion.
On March 5, Argus Research upgraded Sempra to “buy,” citing the LNG asset monetization and Texas utility growth, and with the $10 billion KKR stake sale in Sempra Infrastructure Partners closing in Q2 or Q3, a 2030 EPS outlook of $6.70 to $7.50, and Oncor’s rate base growing at 18% annually, the company’s transition to a near pure-play regulated utility positions it to compound earnings at 7% to 9% annually without diluting existing shareholders.
Wall Street’s Take on SRE Stock
The $65 billion capital plan and the KKR transaction eliminating equity issuance remove the two biggest overhangs on Sempra’s forward EPS, directly unlocking the normalized EPS jump from $4.69 in 2025 to a projected $5.10 in 2026, an 8.7% step-up after five years of sub-1% annual growth.
That 2026 EPS inflection is not a one-year event: TIKR’s forward estimates project normalized EPS compounding from $5.10 in 2026 to $7.15 by 2030, supported by EBITDA margins expanding from 36.4% in 2025 to 47.6% by 2029 as Oncor’s regulated transmission earnings, which carry higher and more predictable margins than generation assets, dominate the mix.
The EBITDA margin expansion is directly justified by Oncor’s 18% rate base CAGR through 2030, a growth rate driven by the Permian Basin Reliability Plan and the 765 kV transmission expansion, both of which carry pre-approved regulatory backing and do not depend on data center connection timelines.
Thirteen of 16 analysts rate Sempra a buy or outperform, with a mean price target of $101.50 against the current $95.11 price, implying 6.7% upside from consensus alone, yet that target was set before the full capital plan details and the no-equity-issuance commitment were absorbed into models.
The spread between the $87.00 low target and the $113.00 high target reflects a genuine binary: the low anchors to PUCT rejection of the Oncor base rate settlement expected in the first half of 2026, while the high prices in the $9 billion incremental capital opportunity moving from the upside bucket into the confirmed base plan.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s model prices SRE at $125.54 by December 31, 2030, a 32% total return from the current price at a 5.9% annualized IRR, driven by a mid-case net income margin of 27.3% versus 22.4% in 2025 as the SI Partners deconsolidation removes lower-margin infrastructure earnings from the consolidated financials.
The market is pricing Sempra as a flat-EPS utility: five years of sub-1% annual EPS growth created that discount, but the $65 billion capital plan breaks that pattern starting in 2026.
Meanwhile, Oncor’s customer collateral balance hitting $3.5 billion versus roughly $200 million in 2018 confirms that the 273-gigawatt interconnection queue is not speculative; real capital is committed, directly supporting the 18% rate base CAGR assumption in TIKR’s model.
Three directors purchased Sempra shares on the open market between March 11 and March 13, a simultaneous insider buying cluster that signals internal conviction the KKR transaction closes on schedule and the rate settlement holds.
If the PUCT rejects or materially weakens the Oncor base rate settlement expected in the first half of 2026, the 18% rate base CAGR assumption breaks and TIKR’s $125.54 target becomes indefensible.
The PUCT final order on the Oncor settlement, expected in the first half of 2026, is the single gating event: watch for confirmation of the improved authorized ROE and equity layer, the two inputs that drive Oncor’s earnings directly into TIKR’s 2027 EPS estimate of $5.52.
Should You Invest in Sempra?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up SRE stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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