Key Stats for Dollar General Stock
- Price change for Dollar General stock: -9%
- $DG Share Price as of Mar. 13: $132
- 52-Week High: $158
- $DG Stock Price Target: $148
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What Happened?
Dollar General stock (DG) dropped roughly 9% in the last two days after the company posted a strong Q4 beat but issued 2026 guidance that left investors wanting more.
The quarter itself was hard to fault.
- EPS of $1.93 topped estimates by $0.32.
- Revenue of $10.9 billion beat forecasts of $10.82 billion.
- Same-store sales grew 4.3%, and operating profit was up more than 100% year over year.
The problem was the outlook.
For 2026,
- Dollar General guided EPS of $7.10 to $7.35, roughly in line with the $7.25 consensus but with meaningful headwinds baked in.
- A $0.13 drag from the expiration of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit was one.
- Modest SG&A deleverage was another.
- Same-store sales guidance of 2.2% to 2.7% implied a real step down from Q4 momentum.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Dollar General Stock
After an 65% gain over the past year, Dollar General stock was priced for continued momentum.
Guidance that signals a deceleration, even a modest one, was enough to trigger profit-taking.
That said, the business story is genuinely improving.
- Gross margins expanded 107 basis points for the full year, driven largely by shrinkage reduction.
- Inventory fell nearly 6% while in-stock levels improved.
- Operating cash flow hit $3.6 billion, up 21%.
- The company paid down $1.7 billion in debt in 2025, meaningfully strengthening its balance sheet.
CEO Todd Vasos sounded optimistic on the call despite the cautious guidance.
- He said the company’s Value Valley assortment, over 500 items priced at $1, delivered 17.6% comparable sales growth in Q4.
- Delivery now contributes about 80 basis points to comp growth.
- The DG Media Network generated approximately $170 million in 2025 and is still in its early stages of development.
- At least 15 new nonconsumable brands are planned for 2026.
One thing worth watching is the tariff environment.
Management flagged tariffs and rising gas prices as potential headwinds for the year.
Dollar General’s core customers tend to be lower-income and are already feeling pressure. Any additional cost increases, whether passed through to prices or absorbed in margins, could complicate the story.
Dollar General stock is now roughly 16% below its recent highs but still up significantly over the past year.
For investors who missed the run, this pullback may be worth a closer look if the 2026 execution proves better than the guidance suggests.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
