Key Stats for Arcosa Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -3.5%
- 52-Week Range: $68.1 to $131
- Current Price: $105.7
What Happened?
Arcosa (ACA), an infrastructure products company spanning construction materials and power grid structures, sold its barge-building unit for $450 million on February 24, leaving a simpler, higher-margin business trading at $105.68.
Arcosa reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.15 against a consensus estimate of $0.92 on February 26,, a 25% beat, while full-year adjusted EBITDA hit a record $583.3 million, up 30%, with margins expanding 280 basis points to 20.2%.
The engine behind both the beat and the re-rating is utility structures, the segment that manufactures steel poles and towers connecting power generation to the grid, where Q4 revenues jumped 20%, backlog held at $434.9 million, and margin expanded in every single quarter of 2025.
Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “the barge transaction further reduces portfolio complexity and cyclicality, raises our overall margin profile and enhances the long-term resiliency of the company,” directly linking the $450 million divestiture to Arcosa’s structural shift toward construction materials and power infrastructure.
With the Illinois wind tower facility converting to utility pole production in H2 2026, the Tulsa facility beginning a parallel transition for 2028 contribution, and $915 million in liquidity available for bolt-on aggregates acquisitions, Arcosa exits its transformation phase with two high-visibility growth businesses and a funded M&A pipeline.
Wall Street’s Take on ACA Stock
The $450 million barge sale, which removes the segment generating the lowest-margin and most cyclical revenue, directly accelerates the margin expansion that utility structures growth has been building toward since 2021.
The street projects EBITDA rising from $583 million in 2025 to $610 million in 2026, with EBITDA margins holding at 20.5%, supported by utility structures double-digit EBITDA growth offsetting the anticipated 25% step-down in wind tower revenues.
Normalized EPS is expected to grow from $4.47 in 2025 to $4.91 in 2026 and $5.37 in 2027, a trajectory grounded in the $434.9 million utility structures backlog, record shoring products backlog, and low single-digit aggregates volume growth already embedded in guidance.
Five analysts currently rate ACA a buy or outperform with zero holds and zero sells, and their mean price target of $127.83 implies 21% upside from the March 13 close of $105.68, a consensus that reflects confidence in the post-divestiture margin profile rather than a cyclical bounce.
The spread between the Street’s $115 bear target and $133 bull target is narrow by infrastructure standards, with the low anchored to wind tower policy uncertainty in 2026 and the high contingent on utility structures margins expanding as the Illinois conversion comes online in H2 2026.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s model targets $140.47 by December 2030, implying a 32.9% total return and a 6.1% annualized IRR, driven by a 6.5% revenue CAGR and net income margins expanding from 7.6% in 2025 to 8.3% at the mid case, as barge cyclicality exits and utility structures compounds.
The market is pricing ACA as a cyclical infrastructure name; the 630 basis point EBITDA margin expansion from 2021 to 2025 confirms a structural business mix shift, not a cycle.
Utility structures backlog held at or near record highs throughout all four quarters of 2025 and capacity is now constrained industry-wide, the specific condition TIKR’s 6.5% revenue CAGR assumption requires to hold through 2031.
Management’s decision to convert a second facility in Tulsa from wind towers to utility poles signals that demand visibility extends well beyond 2026, not a one-quarter observation.
The risk that breaks the model is wind tower policy deteriorating further into 2027, collapsing the $330 million wind backlog scheduled for that year and removing the absorption that keeps Engineered Structures margins flat.
The Q2 2026 barge divestiture close is the single event to watch: the updated guidance Arcosa issues afterward will reveal the clean margin baseline of the two remaining segments and confirm whether the 20.5% EBITDA margin assumption holds without barge contribution.
Should You Invest in Arcosa, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up ACA stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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