Key Stats for Humana Stock
- Price Change: -4.2%
- Current Price: $195
- Advanced Model Price Target: $587
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What Happened?
Shares of Humana Inc. (HUM) traded lower on Monday, falling 4.2% to close at $195.
The decline comes as investors continue to analyze the long-term impact of regulatory shifts on the Medicare Advantage landscape.
CFO Celeste Mellet recently provided a “state of the union” update at the Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference.
Management addressed the complexities of the 2026 benefit cycle, noting that the “devil is in the details” regarding unintended consequences for member premiums.
While competitors like UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) and CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) navigate similar headwinds, Humana is prioritizing margin recovery over raw membership growth.
The market remains cautious as the industry awaits final clarity on transition credits and benefit coverages for the coming years.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Humana stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Humana Undervalued Today?
On the latest earnings call, CFO Celeste Mellet emphasized the importance of the 2026 bid process for the company’s trajectory.
She stated: “they would cover the ’26 benefits if they are provided and depending on when they come in.”
Regarding the regulatory environment, she highlighted that while intentions are good, the execution remains a key variable.
She noted: “all of this is very well intended, but understanding the unintended consequences generally, in terms of understanding what it means for members… still way too early to say.”
Furthermore, the company remains focused on stabilizing its core Medicare segments to ensure sustainable long-term profitability.
Read the full HUM Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 Medicare Advantage outlook >>>
According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, the recent price surge still leaves significant room for appreciation.
- Advanced Model Price Target: $587
- Current Price: $195
- Potential Upside: +200.7%
The investment case for Humana (HUM) has transformed from a “legacy dividend play” into a legitimate healthcare recovery story.
The model suggests that the market is still catching up to Humana’s fundamental structural shift toward software.
- The Fair Value Gap: At $195, the stock is trading at a deep discount to its $587 intrinsic value, offering a rare entry point for a Blue Chip recovery play.
- The Growth Reality: The model assumes a 10.0% Revenue CAGR through 2030, a baseline that data suggests aligns with the company’s 10 year historical average of 9.3%.
- The Profitability Check: The model targets a 2.4% Net Income Margin, driven by the high-margin shift toward core Medicare insurance and health services.
If Humana (HUM) successfully navigates the 2026 pricing environment, it could further accelerate the intrinsic value gap toward the bull case.
Conclusion: The healthcare recovery story is just beginning. With a potential 200.7% total return and a valuation model pointing to $587, Humana stock offers a compelling mix of defensive positioning and extreme recovery potential.
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How Much Upside Does Humana Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
