Key Stats for Marathon Petroleum Stock
- This Week Performance: +0.7%
- 52-Week Range: $115.1 to $210.3
- Current Price: $198.2
What Happened?
Marathon Petroleum Company‘s Midstream segment hit a record ~$7.0 billion in adjusted EBITDA while the stock trades at $198.2, just 6% below its 52-week high, signaling the market is finally pricing in structural earnings durability.
Specifically, Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta pressed management on February 3 about capital return sustainability, drawing out a direct commitment from CEO Maryann Mannen to match or beat the $4.5 billion returned to shareholders in 2025.
The engine powering this conviction is MPC’s 114% capture rate in Q4 2025, paired with record crude throughput at both Garyville and Robinson refineries and a fully integrated commercial system no peer can replicate.
Also, the market is actively re-rating MPC from a pure-play refiner into a through-cycle cash generation machine, anchored by MPLX’s growing $3.5 billion annual distribution stream flowing directly to MPC.
CEO Maryann Mannen stated on the Q4 earnings call that “assuming current market cracks, that would be indicative of us being able to repeat a similar pattern that we did in 2025,” directly confirming a second consecutive year of $4.5 billion shareholder returns.
Furthermore, UBS analyst Manav Gupta highlighted MPC’s Garyville projects on February 3, noting their 25% target return profile compares favorably even against MPLX’s typical mid-teen midstream returns.
Looking ahead, MPC’s 50% sour crude diet, California competitor closure, and MPLX’s $2.4 billion growth CapEx plan position it to widen its competitive moat against every U.S. refiner through the rest of the decade.
Wall Street’s Take on MPC Stock
MPC’s California competitor closure and Venezuelan crude access directly expand refining margins and crude optionality, accelerating the earnings recovery already visible in Q4’s 114% capture rate.
Fundamentally, MPC grew EPS 12.5% to $10.7 in 2025, with analysts projecting a further 23.5% jump to $13.2 in 2026, while EBITDA margins expand from 8.8% to 10.1%.
Wall Street shows 6 buys, 4 outperforms, 9 holds, and no sells, with a mean price target of $199.6, implying just 0.7% upside, suggesting analysts are broadly neutral at current prices.
However, the spread between the $163.0 low target and $225.0 high target is significant, with California refinery closures and sour crude differential widening driving upside while Iran nuclear deal progress and oil price softness anchor the bear case.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
With MPLX delivering record midstream EBITDA and MPC committed to returning all excess free cash flow to shareholders, the TIKR mid-case target of $290.6 implies a 46.6% total return over 4.8 years at an 8.2% annualized IRR.
The market is underpricing MPC’s structural sour crude advantage, where every $1.0 move in sour differentials generates $500 million in annual benefit.
The TIKR model targets $290.6, implying 46.6% total return from current levels. MPLX’s $3.5 billion annual distribution fully funds MPC’s dividends and standalone CapEx, freeing all excess cash for buybacks.
CEO Maryann Mannen even directly confirmed on February 3 that repeating $4.5 billion in shareholder returns in 2026 is “clearly within our ability.”
Nevertheless, MPC’s revenue is projected to decline 10.9% to $120.5 billion in 2026, and if refining margins compress further on Iran supply normalization or OPEC volume increases, the EPS recovery thesis stalls before it gains momentum.
The single most important metric to watch is Q2 2026 refining capture rate, as California competitor closure and Venezuelan crude differentials should deliver the margin expansion the bull case requires.
MPC appears moderately undervalued at $198.2, with the EPS recovery and sour crude tailwinds compelling, but the street’s near-flat mean target of $199.6 signals conviction remains cautious until margin expansion is confirmed.
Should You Invest in Marathon Petroleum?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up MPC stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Marathon Petroleum Corporation alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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