Key Stats for EQT Stock
- This Week Performance: +1.5%
- 52-Week Range: $43.6 to $62.2
- Current Price: $61.4
What Happened?
EQT stock (EQT) trades at $61.4, just cents below its 52-week high of $62.2, after delivering a Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.9 against a $0.7 consensus estimate while projecting over $4.0 billion in pre-growth free cash flow for 2026, reframing EQT less as a gas producer and more as a fully integrated energy platform compounding shareholder value.
The February 18 earnings release served as the primary flashpoint, with JP Morgan raising its price target to $68 from $58 following the beat, while insider disposals from EVP Upstream Sarah Fenton on February 24 and Chief Accounting Officer James Todd on February 25 drew additional attention to the stock’s insider activity.
Powering the move is EQT’s vertically integrated commercial engine, which sold approximately 98% of February production at first-of-month pricing settled at $7.5 per MMBtu at Henry Hub, generating February free cash flow approaching $1.0 billion and driving Q1 performance already exceeding consensus estimates by more than 30%.
Besides, the market is actively re-rating EQT from a pure-play Appalachian gas producer into a capital-compounding infrastructure operator, as its 53% ownership stake in Mountain Valley Pipeline, the Clarington Connector project, and a projected $16.0 billion in five-year cumulative free cash flow signal a durable, annuity-like earnings profile that commands a higher valuation multiple.
Furthermore, CFO Jeremy Knop stated on the Q4 earnings call that “we estimate January and February performance already exceeds consensus Q1 free cash flow expectations by more than 30%,” contextualizing EQT’s sixth consecutive quarter of beating consensus free cash flow estimates with an average beat of 40%.
Also reinforcing conviction, EQT holds a buy rating from 21 of 28 covering analysts with zero sell recommendations, and the Street’s median 12-month price target of $64.0 implies approximately 9% upside from the February 13 closing price of $58.7, reflecting broad institutional confidence in the platform’s earnings durability.
Looking ahead, EQT’s aggressive infrastructure buildout, including the upsized 400 MMcfe per day Clarington Connector and MVP Boost expansion, positions the company to capture an outsized share of the projected 6.0 to 7.0 Bcf per day of in-basin Appalachian demand growth, establishing a structural competitive moat that peers lacking vertical integration will struggle to replicate over the next three to five years.
Wall Street’s Take on EQT Stock
EQT’s Q4 beat and $1.0 billion February windfall directly confirm the $3.5 billion free cash flow guidance for 2026, accelerating deleveraging toward the $5.0 billion long-term debt target.
Revenue surges 63.9% in 2025 to $8.6 billion, with EPS normalized jumping 89.4% to $3.1, while 2026 estimates project further EPS growth of 53.2% to $4.7.
Currently, 17 buys, 3 outperforms, 6 holds, and 1 underperform cover EQT, with a mean target of $65.2, implying 6.2% upside from the February 27 close of $61.4.
Meanwhile, the analyst target range spans $48.0 to $76.0, where the high target reflects full infrastructure monetization and the low reflects a prolonged gas price decline below breakeven levels.
With $16.0 billion in projected five-year cumulative free cash flow underpinning the thesis, the mid-case DCF target of $85.3 implies a total return of 38.9% over 4.8 years at a 7.0% annualized IRR.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The market underestimates EQT’s transition from a pure gas producer into a capital-compounding infrastructure platform.
The mid-case target of $85.3 implies 38.9% total return from the current price of $61.4. EPS growth of 53.2% in 2026 and EBITDA margin expansion to 69.1% make that return credible.
Additionally, JP Morgan’s February 18 target raise to $68 confirms institutional conviction is grounded in fundamentals, not speculation.
However, any reversal in natural gas prices below EQT’s $2.2 levered breakeven, especially as Iran nuclear deal progress pressured energy stocks 2.5% to 3.1% on February 18, remains the single most consequential threat to the 2026 free cash flow thesis.
Q1 free cash flow results, expected to approach $1.0 billion in February alone, will be the definitive proof point confirming whether EQT’s Winter Storm Fern windfall translates into a durable structural earnings re-rating.
Therefore, at $61.4, EQT is undervalued relative to its mid-case intrinsic value of $85.3, with the Q1 free cash flow print serving as the near-term event that will either validate or challenge the bull case.
Should You Invest in EQT Corporation?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up EQT stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track EQT Corporation alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze EQT stock on TIKR for Free →
