Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs analysts see Anthropic’s revenue reaching about $685 billion by 2030. Goldman is co-leading Anthropic’s IPO.
- The same model shows no positive free cash flow until 2030, so Anthropic will fund its suppliers from cash and financing until then.
- Anthropic’s filing lists about $161 billion of equipment leases with Broadcom and its financing partners, its largest single commitment.
- Broadcom trades at 18x forward earnings, below its 24x five-year average. The IPO prices on Nov. 18, and Broadcom reports on Dec. 9.
Anthropic’s IPO prices on Nov. 18, and Goldman Sachs (GS), one of the two banks leading the deal, has a big number for what comes after. Its research analysts model Anthropic’s revenue at roughly $685 billion by 2030, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 10, citing a person familiar with the estimates. That’s nearly 150 times the $4.59 billion Anthropic booked last year.
On paper, that’s great news for the companies Anthropic owes. Its amended IPO filing lists about $161 billion of equipment leases with Broadcom (AVGO) and its financing partners, at least $121 billion with Google, owned by Alphabet (GOOG), up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX (SPCX) and at least $110 billion with Amazon (AMZN).
A Hockey Stick From the Bank Running the Deal
As Bloomberg described the model, revenue climbs from about $52 billion this year to $136 billion in 2027 and $442 billion in 2029 before reaching $685 billion. Zerohedge wasn’t impressed: “Goldman is out there hockeysticking, because it will make hundreds of millions from a successful IPO.”
The growth so far is real. Anthropic’s latest filing puts run-rate revenue at about $81 billion at the end of October, up $10 billion in a month.
Even Goldman’s Bull Case Burns Cash Until 2030
Goldman has compute spending climbing more than tenfold to nearly $400 billion by 2030, with free cash flow turning positive only that year, at $33.6 billion.
Anthropic’s Nov. 10 filing puts its commitments at about $900.9 billion, with $451.6 billion expected before the end of 2030. It had $132 billion of cash and short-term investments at Sept. 30. The IPO and private placement are targeted to raise up to $90.4 billion, though about $1.8 billion of that goes to selling shareholders. That’s up to about $220 billion after the deal.
Goldman’s model has free cash flow negative every year until 2030. That cash buys time, and how much depends on whether costs keep outrunning sales: third-quarter compute and infrastructure expenses rose about 78% from the second quarter, while revenue rose about 47%.
TIKR Tracks 51 Analysts on Broadcom. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Broadcom, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Broadcom’s Analyst Ratings
Broadcom Has the Most Riding on It
Broadcom’s growth outlook leans on Anthropic. Management sees Anthropic taking 5 gigawatts of capacity in fiscal 2027 and another 10 in fiscal 2028, about half the roughly 30 gigawatts it expects across those two years. Analysts expect Broadcom’s revenue to more than quadruple from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028:
Broadcom is on the hook beyond its chips. It backstops up to about $29 billion of leases tied to Anthropic and up to about $43 billion more on a $63 billion rack financing. It may also lend Anthropic up to $42 billion through convertible notes. That’s against $24.0 billion of cash at Aug. 2.
Broadcom trades at 18x forward earnings, below its five-year average of 24x and far from its 49x peak in December 2025:
Broadcom Is Betting on Anthropic’s Runway
Broadcom’s share of that $161 billion is counting on Goldman’s forecast, and on Anthropic’s cash lasting until 2030, even if the forecast comes true. The 18x multiple already prices in some of that risk, I think, and I don’t expect it to climb back toward 24x until Anthropic shows it can pay its own way.
The IPO is the first test. After that, watch Broadcom’s fiscal fourth-quarter report on Dec. 9, and whether management repeats its outlook of about $115 billion of AI revenue for fiscal 2027.
So What Is Broadcom Stock Actually Worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Broadcom could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
