Key Takeaways
- On Oct. 8, Goldman Sachs upgraded Palantir to Buy from Neutral with a $230 price target, 18% above Wednesday’s close of $194.12.
- Goldman analyst Gabriela Borges argues that sovereign AI, bespoke software and industry-specific sales give Palantir a growth market beyond its US government and commercial accounts.
- Palantir’s operating margin rose from -26.7% in fiscal 2021 to 31.6% in fiscal 2025, and analysts expect revenue to nearly quadruple from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028.
- At 102.4x forward earnings, the stock trades right at its five-year average, which makes Goldman’s target look reasonable. The next earnings report is the one to watch.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is about $8 from a record high, and Goldman Sachs thinks it has further to run.
On Thursday, Goldman upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $230 price target, 18% above Wednesday’s close of $194.12. Shares were up about 3% in early trading, closing in on the record of just over $207 they set in October 2025.
What exactly happened
Goldman analyst Gabriela Borges based the upgrade on three things: demand for sovereign AI, demand for bespoke software and Palantir’s push to sell into specific industries. Together, she wrote, they mean Palantir’s addressable market “may be setting up for another step function change in depth.”
Based on Goldman’s latest round of industry conversations, she concluded that “the stock is setting up for another phase of outperformance into 2027.”
Goldman also noted that the stock has lagged this year. It’s up 16%, against 24% for the Nasdaq 100, and it trades at a discount to fast-growing peers.
Why sovereign AI matters
Palantir CEO Alex Karp uses “sovereign AI” to mean that, eventually, there will be about as many frontier AI models as there are enterprises, each built on a company’s own data. Borges thinks that shift is just starting: “We believe enterprises are in the early stages of applying AI to their proprietary data to amplify their existing moats.”
Tech giants have the talent to build their own models, so Palantir’s opening is in every other industry.
Goldman points to the reference customers already lining up. Nvidia (NVDA) expanded its partnership to run Palantir’s Foundry and AIP across its own supply chain, and Goldman sees that as a way into tech ecosystems across Asia. A partnership with Nebius Group (NBIS) also names Palantir a preferred sovereign AI infrastructure provider. By Goldman’s count, that opens doors at 20 to 80 scaled neocloud providers worldwide.
That market reaches well beyond the US government and commercial accounts Palantir is known for. (The government business is getting deeper too: the Department of War has made Palantir’s Maven Smart System a formal program of record.)
Analysts already expect revenue to nearly quadruple, from $4.48 billion in fiscal 2025 to $17.8 billion in fiscal 2028.
For Goldman’s call to pay off, sovereign AI has to push those estimates higher still.
Isn’t this already priced in?
The obvious objection is that Palantir is expensive, and 18% is a small target for a stock that swings this hard. Even CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who has been using a $250 target, admitted on the Oct. 1 episode of Mad Money: “I’ve been too aggressive so far.”
Here’s the thing: the business behind that multiple has changed. Some investors worry that Palantir’s Forward Deployed Engineer model, which places its engineers inside customers’ operations, can’t scale. Borges disagrees. She argues that the model “requires tight feedback loops between field and product, which Palantir has perfected to the point of being able to automate via AI FDEs.”
The margins back her up. Palantir’s operating margin rose from -26.7% in fiscal 2021 to 31.6% in fiscal 2025.
…and the multiple hasn’t run ahead of that. At 102.4x forward earnings, Palantir trades right at its five-year average of 102.9x and far below the 270.3x peak it hit in October 2025:
(TIKR looked at how that multiple came down even as the stock rose in the third quarter.)
The math on Goldman’s target is simple. If analysts’ earnings estimates for the next twelve months stayed where they are, a $230 share price would put Palantir at about 121x forward earnings. That’s above its five-year average but less than half its peak.
Goldman has this one right
I think Goldman’s call holds up. The target doesn’t need Palantir to get back to its peak multiple. It needs the business to keep growing into the multiple it has now, with sovereign AI adding to estimates that already call for steep growth.
Of course, at more than 100x forward earnings, any slowdown in those estimates would hit the stock hard. Palantir’s next earnings report is the first test of whether sovereign deals like the Nebius partnership start to show up in revenue and guidance.
So what is Palantir stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
