Key Stats for General Motors Stock
- Current Price: $82.73
- Target Price (Mid): ~$100
- Street Target: ~$105
- Potential Total Return: ~21%
- Annualized IRR: ~4.5% / year
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What Happened?
General Motors (GM) closed at $82.73 on October 9, 7.4% above its September 30 close of $77.00. On October 6, GM confirmed it will stop building the light-duty Silverado 1500 at Oshawa, Ontario, in November. That ends light-duty pickup assembly at its only operating Canadian assembly plant. Third-quarter results follow on October 20, with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to its investor relations materials.
Oshawa Drops the Light-Duty Silverado as Its Sales Climb 13%
GM will replace the lost 1500 volume by boosting heavy-duty Silverado output, and a spokesperson said employment levels will stay the same, according to The Globe and Mail. A GM spokesperson tied the timing to winding down current models ahead of the next generation. GM Authority has reported the redesigned 1500 will be built in Indiana and Mexico, which GM has not confirmed. AutoForecast Solutions estimates Oshawa will build about 114,000 trucks in 2026, split evenly between light-duty and heavy-duty models.
The shift runs against recent demand. In the third quarter, U.S. deliveries of the light-duty Silverado rose 13.3% to 100,221, while the heavy-duty Silverado fell 10.1% to 44,278, per GM’s delivery data.
CFO Paul Jacobson described GM’s production stance at JPMorgan’s U.S. All Stars Conference on September 23. Asked about excess U.S. capacity, he said GM has to “maintain our discipline, not get too excited about overproducing ourselves.” He added that its discounting runs “anywhere from 150 to 250 basis points below industry average” while it holds share. GM has not linked Oshawa to those remarks, but its remaining light-duty plants now carry that growing demand into the launch.
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EVs Explain the Sales Drop. Pricing Is the Harder Test
Total U.S. deliveries fell 5.5% to 670,974, which GM tied to a much smaller EV market and discontinued vehicles. EV deliveries fell by 41,028 units to 25,473, more than the entire 39,373-unit decline. The comparison is against a quarter when buyers rushed ahead of the September 30, 2025, expiry of federal EV tax credits. Ford (F) reported a 6.6% third-quarter sales decline.
Pricing is less certain. Jacobson said, “I think we have to prepare for potentially more modest increases in pricing,” and put commodity costs at levels “even higher than where we were earlier this year.” Reported profit has already lagged. Adjusted EPS beat estimates in each of the last five quarters, while GAAP EPS missed in four, including by 48% in the second quarter of 2026.
Super Cruise adds a modest offset. Jacobson said 35,000 trials expired this year with 30% to 40% attaching new subscriptions, and that the number “will double next year.” At the same rates, 2027 roll-offs imply roughly 21,000 to 28,000 new subscriptions. GM expects more than 850,000 Super Cruise subscriptions by the end of 2026, so the gain is incremental.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $82.73
- Target Price (Mid): ~$100
- Potential Total Return: ~21%
- Annualized IRR: ~4.5% / year
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TIKR’s mid-case, used here as the neutral scenario, values GM at around $100 by December 31, 2030. That is a total return of around 21% from $82.73, or around 4.5% a year. Its 2025 to 2035 assumptions call for revenue growth near 2% a year, net margins near 7%, and EPS growth near 6%, with the P/E ratio drifting lower. The target sits about $5 below the Street’s mean of about $105.
- Upside: Super Cruise subscriptions and steady truck pricing lift net margins above the model’s ~7%.
- Downside: Smaller price gains against higher commodity costs keep net margins below ~7%, slowing the EPS growth behind the target.
Conclusion
Analysts expect third-quarter GAAP EPS of around $3.60, nearly level with adjusted EPS of around $3.61, though only six analysts estimate the GAAP figure. After four GAAP misses in five quarters, another wide gap would suggest special charges are not finished. Commentary on 2027 pricing is the second test. A plan that leans on cost cuts over price increases would confirm Jacobson’s warning.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
