Key Stats for Boeing Stock
- Current Price: $190.37
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,730
- Street Target: ~$272
- Potential Total Return: ~808%
- Annualized IRR: ~69% / year
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What Happened?
Lessor Avolon agreed on October 9 to a firm order for 140 737 MAX jets from The Boeing Company (BA), pending approval from its majority owner. Boeing shares rose 1.40% to $190.37 that day but still sit 12.3% below their 2025 close. Boeing’s own executives place the bottleneck on the factory floor, starting with wings. Its investor relations materials set October 27 for third-quarter results.
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Orders Are Outrunning Renton’s Wing Shop
Avolon’s deal is part of a 250-jet package that also gave Airbus (AIR) 110 firm orders plus options on 100 more. Bohai Leasing, Avolon’s 70% owner, is expected to decide before the end of October. Avolon has not disclosed the MAX variants or the delivery dates.
Building the jets is the harder part. At a Morgan Stanley conference on September 16, CEO Kelly Ortberg said the 737 line runs at 47 a month but is not yet stable there: “The area we’re constrained right now is in our wings production.” Moving to 52 also depends on the new North Line in Everett, because “we need to have that line producing to go to rate 52.”
Two obstacles eased in early October. SPEEA engineers ratified a new contract on October 1. On October 2, the FAA ruled that the MAX software glitch poses no safety issue, and aviation officials said the MAX 10 could be certified as soon as later in October. The ruling set no certification date.
Why a 140-Jet Order Pays Slowly
CFO Jay Malave explained at the same conference how an order becomes cash. Deposits at signing vary by deal. After that, “you start receiving predelivery payments or advances about 2 years in advance of delivery,” and the delivery payments come last. Without Avolon’s schedule, the timing of this order’s free cash flow is unknown.
Older deals still weigh on the cash line. Malave cited pricing penalties and “the excess advances that we have to burn through,” adding: “And that will still burden cash flow in 2027.” Consensus has 2027 free cash flow at around $5.7 billion, up from around $2.2 billion for 2026. Barclays analyst Anthony Valentini started coverage at Overweight with a $300 target, above the Street mean of around $272 and just below the $305 high.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $190.37
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,730
- Potential Total Return: ~808%
- Annualized IRR: ~69% / year
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The mid case needs more than an earnings recovery. Consensus 2030 GAAP EPS is around $15, so a $1,730 price would value Boeing at well over 100 times those earnings, against around 24 times NTM earnings for Airbus today. Only a handful of analysts estimate that far out, and the target sits more than six times above the Street mean. Treat it as a scenario, not a forecast. In the upside case, the MAX 10 certifies on time, the North Line lets the 737 move to 52, and investors keep paying a recovery multiple. In the downside case, wing output stays stuck, the 2027 drags Malave described delay the cash, and the multiple shrinks as earnings arrive.
Conclusion
The order book gives little reason to sell; delivery pace decides whether to load up. On October 27, watch for three things: whether Boeing holds its $1 billion to $3 billion 2026 free cash flow guidance (last reaffirmed by Malave on September 16), whether the 737 line is stable at 47, and when the North Line starts producing. A miss on any of them pushes the cash from orders like Avolon’s further out.
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So what is Boeing stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
