Key Takeaways
- Ford stock is down 7% this year, closing at $12.43 on October 16, after its Ford Energy rally peaked at a 52-week high of $17.78 in late May.
- Ratings stand at 5 Buys, 3 Outperforms, 12 Holds and 1 No Opinion, and the $15.61 mean target sits 25.6% above the close.
- Ford now guides to $10 billion to $11 billion in adjusted EBIT.
- Even the lowest Street target, $12.80, sits above the stock.
Ford Motor Company (F) stock is down 6.8% this year, closing at $12.43 on October 16, after a rally built on its new battery-storage business carried it to $17.78 and then unwound.
The car business didn’t unwind with it. Ford has raised its profit outlook twice this year, and Wall Street’s mean price target sits 25.6% above the stock.
The Battery Bet That Sent Ford Stock to $17.78
The year opened badly. Ford stock slid from the mid-$14s in early March and closed the first quarter at $11.54.
May changed that. Ford launched Ford Energy on May 11, repurposing an idle Kentucky battery plant to build grid-scale storage for utilities and AI data centers. Within a week it signed a five-year framework with EDF Power Solutions North America for up to 20 gigawatt hours of storage, with deliveries starting in 2028.
The ride wasn’t smooth (Bloomberg had Ford headed for its worst day since 2024 on May 15), but the stock still rose 44% in May and topped out at $17.78. That’s a big move for a business whose first customer deliveries are planned for late 2027, with EDF deliveries expected to begin in 2028.
A Raised Forecast Couldn’t Hold Ford Stock Up
The second quarter gave Ford real numbers to point to. On July 28, Ford reported $48.3 billion in revenue, down 4%, and $2.5 billion in adjusted EBIT, up 17%, then raised its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to $10 billion to $11 billion, a $1 billion lift at the midpoint.
CEO Jim Farley also put a marker on Ford Energy. “I would say we’re kind of in the third inning of selling out the 2028 capacity of 20 gigawatt hours,” he said on the Q2 2026 earnings call. EDF was still the only customer Ford had named.
Shares climbed into the low $15s in early August, then gave it back. Ford stock closed the third quarter at $12.06, down 13.2% from the end of June by my math, and Bloomberg reported on September 30 that the 45% rally had been erased as hopes for an AI payoff faded.
October didn’t help. On October 2, Ford said third-quarter U.S. sales fell 6.6% to 509,764 vehicles, though it expects a supplier problem that hit F-150 output to stay within its full-year EBIT guidance. From the May high, Ford stock is now down 30.1%.
Wall Street Warmed to Ford Stock While It Fell
Ford now has 5 Buy ratings, 3 Outperforms, 12 Holds and 1 No Opinion, up from a single Buy at the end of 2025, when 17 analysts rated it a Hold and 1 a Sell. The mean target climbed 20.1% over the same stretch to $15.61, which puts it 25.6% above the close.
The lowest target, $12.80, is 3.0% above the current price. The stock is lower than it was in January, and every published target is higher than the stock.
Two Ways to Read Ford Stock at $12.43
The bull case is the guidance. Ford entered the year expecting $8 billion to $10 billion in adjusted EBIT and now expects $10 billion to $11 billion, yet the stock trades below where it started January.
The bear case is 2027. CFO Sherry House said next year loses the $1.3 billion tariff refund Ford booked in the first quarter and takes four quarters of commodity costs instead of three, and called it too early to say whether EBIT grows.
The battery premium is gone from the chart. What’s left is a company with a higher profit forecast and a lower stock price than it had in January. Ford gave its 2026 outlook with fourth-quarter results on February 10, and its 2027 outlook is where that gap closes or doesn’t.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
