Key Stats for Eli Lilly and Company Stock
- 52-Week Range: $623.78 to $1,182.73
- Current Price: $1,136.37
- Street Mean Target: ~$1,216
- TIKR Target Price (Mid): ~$2,110
- TIKR Annualized IRR (Mid): ~15% per year
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $19.8B (up 56% year over year)
- Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS: $8.55 (up 156% year over year)
- 2026 Revenue Guidance: $82B to $85B
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What $19.8 Billion in a Single Quarter Actually Means
The numbers Eli Lilly put up in Q1 2026 are the kind that make you stop and re-read them. Total revenue came in at $19.8 billion, up 56% year over year. Non-GAAP EPS landed at $8.55, up 156% from the same quarter a year ago. Operating income for Eli Lilly (LLY) jumped 141%, these are not normal pharmaceutical growth rates.
The engine behind all of it is incretins, a class of drugs that work by mimicking hormones in the gut to regulate blood sugar and, in many cases, drive significant weight loss. Mounjaro, Lilly’s tirzepatide injection approved for type 2 diabetes, generated $8.7 billion in Q1 alone, more than double what it produced a year earlier.
Zepbound, the same molecule approved for obesity, added $4.2 billion in revenue, up 80% year over year. Together, these two drugs now account for the majority of Lilly’s quarterly revenue, and the company holds roughly 60% of the U.S. incretin market.
The revenue and margin chart shows what happens when a blockbuster drug finds its stride. Lilly sat at roughly $28 billion in annual revenue as recently as 2022. By 2025, that figure had more than doubled to $65 billion, while operating margins expanded from around 30% to nearly 46% over the same period.
That combination, volume scaling alongside margin expansion, is what separates this from a typical pharmaceutical product cycle.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Eli Lilly stock (It’s free) >>>
The Franchise That Keeps Getting Bigger
The growth isn’t slowing, and the product lineup is getting wider. Foundayo, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 pill for obesity, launched in the U.S. in April and went broadly to retail by April 9th. Over 80% of early Foundayo prescriptions were for patients entirely new to incretin therapy, which is an important signal.
It suggests the oral format is expanding the market rather than cannibalizing existing Mounjaro and Zepbound users, people who couldn’t or wouldn’t do injections are now getting access.
Retatrutide, a next-generation molecule that targets three hormones simultaneously, showed body weight reductions of up to 16.8 kilograms in Phase 3 results released this quarter.
Beyond obesity, Lilly is running Phase 3 programs in cardiovascular outcomes, sleep apnea, osteoarthritis, and kidney disease. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $82 to $85 billion and increased non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.50 to $37.00.
The EPS chart captures what the Street expects from all of this. Earnings grew from $6.32 in 2023 to $24.21 in 2025, and consensus has them compounding toward around $36 in 2026, with further upside from there. If those estimates hold, the earnings growth story still has a long runway ahead.
Review how Eli Lilly performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
What the TIKR Model Says About LLY Stock
TIKR’s model targets around $2,110 for Lilly stock in the mid case, implying an annualized return of around 15% per year through 2030. That return is driven almost entirely by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion; the model actually assumes slight P/E compression across all three scenarios, which is a realistic starting point given where the stock trades today.
The scenario range skews noticeably to the upside: the high case, which models around 13% annual revenue growth and net income margins expanding toward 45%, produces a long-term price target near $3,820.
The low case gets you to roughly $2,270. Even that more conservative scenario implies the stock nearly doubles from current levels.
The key variable tying all three scenarios together is margin. Lilly’s gross margin already sits above 82%. How much of that eventually flows through to net income depends on how R&D spending scales across a pipeline with dozens of active Phase 3 programs running simultaneously.
What the Bulls Are Betting On
- The incretin market is still in early innings. GLP-1 drugs reach only a fraction of the eligible population today. As coverage expands and oral options like Foundayo lower the barrier to access, the addressable market could grow substantially larger than current forecasts assume.
- Retatrutide could be a step-function upgrade. Early data showing 16%+ reductions in body weight position it as potentially the most effective weight-loss drug in development, with a cardiovascular outcomes trial that could further broaden its label and patient population.
- Operating leverage is real. Revenue has more than doubled in three years, while cost growth has lagged meaningfully. If that dynamic continues, net income margins have room to expand beyond what the consensus currently prices in.
What the Bears Are Watching
- The stock already reflects a lot of the good news. A forward P/E around 30 times on a pharmaceutical company, even a fast-growing one, leaves limited room for pipeline setbacks, execution stumbles, or a slower-than-expected Foundayo ramp.
- Competition is not standing still. Novo Nordisk holds nearly 47% of the international incretin market and continues investing heavily in next-generation molecules. Several other companies are in late-stage development with their own oral and injectable GLP-1 options.
- Drug pricing risk is a real variable. Lilly’s voluntary agreement with the U.S. government on pricing and access could compress per-unit revenue even as volume grows. How that framework evolves, and whether it expands internationally, is genuinely uncertain.
Value your favorite stocks like LLY with 5 years of analysts’ forecasts using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
