Key Stats for Dell Stock
- Current Price: $485.88
- Target Price (Mid): ~$750
- Street Target: ~$593
- Potential Total Return: ~54%
- Annualized IRR: ~11% / year
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What Happened?
Dell Technologies (DELL) unveiled new AI Factory hardware with NVIDIA (NVDA) at GTC Berlin on October 21, one week after Barclays downgraded the stock over doubts about enterprise AI demand. Shares closed up 5.27% at $485.88 that day. They moved with AI server peers such as Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) after Super Micro Computer (SMCI) raised its quarterly revenue outlook. Shares remained below the $572.47 close of October 13 and were indicated lower before the October 22 open as AI stocks sold off.
Dell Is Selling CPU Servers Into the Barclays Debate
The new lineup leans on CPUs, not just GPUs. The PowerEdge R8822 is an NVIDIA Vera CPU server optimized for agentic AI workloads, and it becomes available in October 2026. The PowerEdge M9882 packs 256 Vera CPUs into one rack and follows in the first quarter of 2027.
That is the market Chief Financial Officer David Kennedy called new at Citi’s technology conference on September 10. He described CPU-based inferencing as a demand pool that did not exist 12 months earlier. The release’s 6,500-customer figure for the AI Factory comes from August order data, so the launch adds products, not fresh demand evidence.
Barclays Says Memory. Kennedy Says Density
On October 14, Barclays analyst Tim Long cut Dell to Equal Weight and lowered his target to $574 from $603. He argued that strong enterprise revenue reflects memory costs passed through to customers rather than an enterprise AI inflection. He still models Dell’s AI server revenue roughly tripling to $75 billion in fiscal 2027.
Dell’s traditional servers and networking revenue rose 122% to $10.5 billion in the fiscal second quarter. Kennedy cited that growth at Citi and added, “Demand was faster than the P&L.” Revenue growth alone cannot settle the debate, because Barclays attributes much of it to pricing.
Kennedy’s answer was density: “Ultimately, I can replace 5 or 6 of those with one of these, the new ones.” He expects server selling prices to stay much higher because of the memory and processor cores each box needs, which concedes part of Barclays’ point.
The disagreement is about timing. Kennedy said supply would be tighter in 2027 than in 2026. Chairman and CEO Michael Dell told CNBC on October 13 that the memory shortage could last about four years. Long, by contrast, expects a meaningful deceleration in growth over the next two years as memory prices normalize.
TIKR tracks 29 analysts on Dell Technologies. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Dell Technologies, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Dell Technologies’ Analyst Ratings
Estimates Held While the Multiple Fell
Dell trades at 17.26x next-twelve-month normalized earnings, down from 21.77x on July 31. Between September 30 and October 21, the stock fell from $537.95 to $485.88. Over the same stretch, consensus fiscal 2028 revenue rose 1.64% to about $229 billion. The Street’s mean target moved from around $584 to around $593, above Barclays’ $574. On the same forward P/E basis, Dell sits between HPE at 12.51x and NetApp (NTAP) at 21.86x, the other two companies Barclays downgraded on October 14.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $485.88
- Target Price (Mid): ~$750
- Potential Total Return: ~54%
- Annualized IRR: ~11% / year
The mid-case scenario puts Dell around $750 by January 31, 2031, about 54% above $485.88. That path depends on Dell converting the $95 billion AI server backlog it held at July 31. It also depends on Dell-owned storage, which Kennedy called the company’s margin lever, offsetting AI server margins he put in the mid-single digits.
The near-term risk is expectations. Consensus calls for around $49.2 billion in third-quarter revenue and around $6.56 in adjusted EPS. Both sit in the upper half of Dell’s guidance of $48.5 billion to $49.5 billion and $6.40 to $6.60. Upside comes if supply stays tight through 2027 and the CPU systems ship in volume. Downside comes if memory prices fall before enterprise demand broadens.
Conclusion
Dell reports fiscal third-quarter results after the close on November 24. Revenue above $49.5 billion, with the $192 billion full-year outlook raised, would support Kennedy. A result inside the range with slowing traditional server growth would support Barclays.
So what is Dell stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
