D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) trades near $159/share, down about 5% over the past year. The housing market has stayed uneven as high mortgage rates continue to pressure affordability, but DHI’s scale, strong land position and conservative balance sheet have helped the company hold steady in a challenging environment.
Recently, D.R. Horton posted results that showed solid resilience. Orders and closings beat expectations, management raised its full year outlook and the company continued to improve build times. DHI also repurchased shares, reinforcing confidence in long term fundamentals even as broader housing demand remains mixed.
This article outlines where Wall Street analysts expect D.R. Horton to trade by 2028. We reviewed consensus price targets and TIKR’s valuation model to map out the stock’s potential path. These figures reflect analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest the Stock Is Mostly Priced In
D.R. Horton trades at about $159/share today. The average analyst price target is $162/share, which points to only about 2% upside. This suggests the stock is already close to fairly valued unless fundamentals improve more meaningfully.
- High estimate: $195/share
- Low estimate: $110/share
- Median target: $167/share
- Ratings: 6 Buys, 1 Outperform, 11 Holds, 2 Underperforms
The narrow spread and heavy tilt toward Hold ratings reflect a cautious outlook. For investors, this implies that DHI is expected to trade mostly in line with earnings rather than benefiting from sentiment driven gains. Any upside would likely require better than expected demand recovery or a more supportive interest rate environment.
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D.R. Horton: Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s fundamentals appear steady and supported by long term housing demand, national scale and consistent execution.
- Revenue is projected to grow 4.7%
- Operating margins are expected to reach about 11.3%
- Shares trade at roughly 11x forward earnings
- Based on analysts average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using an 11x forward P E suggests about $178/share by 2028
- That implies 12.2% total return, or 4.1% annualized
These numbers indicate that D.R. Horton can compound steadily, although not at the pace seen during stronger housing cycles. The stock looks reasonably valued for mid single digit growth, which means upside depends on stable demand and a more supportive interest rate environment.
For investors, DHI behaves more like a reliable operator tied to long term housing needs than a high growth story. Returns are likely to be driven by consistent earnings rather than a major jump in valuation.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
D.R. Horton benefits from long term housing needs in the United States. The country is still structurally undersupplied, particularly in affordable price points where DHI has strong exposure. This helps sustain buyer demand even when rates are high.
The company’s focus on operational efficiency also supports the investment case. Faster build cycles, disciplined land spending and ongoing share repurchases reflect steady execution. For investors, these strengths suggest DHI has the tools to deliver stable performance even in a choppy market.
Bear Case: Housing Cycles and Affordability Pressures
Despite these positives, risks remain. High mortgage rates continue to limit affordability, and builders are still relying on incentives to maintain sales momentum. Pricing power has weakened in several regions, and a slower economy could further pressure orders.
For investors, the main concern is that the broader housing cycle could stay sluggish longer than expected. DHI is positioned well relative to peers, but industry conditions may still cap near term upside. The stock currently reflects stability rather than a sharp rebound.
Outlook for 2028: What Could D.R. Horton Be Worth?
Based on analysts average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using an 11x forward P E suggests D.R. Horton could trade near $178/share by 2028. From today’s price of about $159/share, that represents roughly 12% total upside, or about 4% annualized return.
This outlook assumes steady margins and moderate growth. To see stronger gains, DHI would likely need lower interest rates or a more pronounced recovery in new home demand. Without that, returns are expected to track the modest compounding reflected in the model.
For investors, D.R. Horton remains a reliable long term operator, but outsized upside depends on conditions improving beyond today’s cautious expectations.
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