Key Stats for Cummins Stock
- 52-Week Range: $308 to $718
- Current Price: $669
- Street Mean Target: $725
- Street High Target: $845
- Analyst Consensus: 9 Buys / 4 Outperforms / 8 Holds / 1 Underperform
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $807
Cummins Stock Brushes Its 52-Week High After Raising Guidance Twice in Three Weeks
Cummins Inc. (CMI) surged to a 52-week high following a Q1 2026 earnings beat and a May Analyst Day where leadership raised 2030 revenue and margin targets for the second time in two years, validating a multi-year thesis that is only now entering its most aggressive growth phase.
The engine and power systems maker reported Q1 2026 revenue of $8.4 billion, up 3% year-over-year, on stronger-than-expected data center backup power demand and early signs of recovery in the North American truck market.
Power Systems, the segment supplying generators to hyperscale data centers, recorded a 19% revenue increase to around $2 billion and hit a record EBITDA margin of 29.5%.
CEO Jennifer Rumsey called out North America truck markets beginning “to improve from a cyclical low” on the earnings call, and Cummins responded by adding a third production shift at its Rocky Mount, North Carolina plant to meet accelerating medium-duty demand.
The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook to 8% to 11%, up from the prior guide of 3% to 8%, and lifted EBITDA margin guidance to a range of 17.75% to 18.5%.
Three weeks later at the May 21 Analyst Day, Cummins raised its 2030 financial targets to revenue of $45 billion to $50 billion with EBITDA exceeding 20%, up from the prior targets of $43 billion to $48 billion and a 17% to 18% margin. Power Systems President Jenny Bush also announced an additional $450 million of capacity investment to expand high-horsepower genset output by 20 gigawatts, targeting $9 billion in data center revenue by 2030 versus around $5 billion expected this year.
The company also announced a new natural gas large engine platform, a new mining engine for the 100-tonne truck market, and plans to launch expanded Tier 4 after-treatment for prime power applications. These are not roadmap items — they are funded programs with stated launch windows.
CFO Mark Smith framed the compound annual growth rate path to 2030 across three pillars: data center growth contributing 2% to 3%; content additions plus on-highway recovery contributing another 2% to 3%; and aftermarket plus mining plus other industrial markets adding a final 2% to 3%.
That 6% to 9% CAGR is the number Cummins stock does not yet fully price in.
What Analysts Say About Cummins Stock and the $845 Street-High Target
Nineteen analysts currently cover CMI stock with a combined 9 Buys, 4 Outperforms, and 8 Holds, producing a street mean target of around $725 — roughly 8% above the current price of around $669.
That modest implied upside reflects a consensus that has moved fast to price in the data center tailwind but has not yet revised upward to match the targets Cummins set at its Analyst Day.
At least six brokerages raised their price targets following Q1 results: Citi moved to $770 from $710, Jefferies to $775 from $700, JP Morgan to $725 from $600, Morgan Stanley to $752 from $675, BofA to $731 from $540, and Bernstein to $700 from $600.
The street high of $845 belongs to a single analyst with conviction that the data center build and EPA 2027 content cycle together justify a premium to the mean.
Jefferies captured the dynamic precisely, noting that Cummins’ raised 2026 outlook reflects stronger power generation growth with margins and volumes improving as capacity ramps and momentum extending beyond 2027.
That engine truck market recovery is the second driver the consensus has not fully credited. Heavy-duty industry production was 50,000 units in Q1 at a 23% year-over-year decline. Cummins guided to 230,000 to 250,000 units for the full year 2026, up from the prior range of 220,000 to 240,000 — and the company is adding shifts, not cutting them.
CMI Gross Margin Expands Even as Operating Income Came Under Pressure
Cummins stock tells a two-part financial story in the income statement data: a business where gross margins are recovering and expanding, offset in the near term by operating cost investment that is front-loading the expenses required to capture the next cycle.
Gross profit in Q1 2026 was $2.24 billion, with gross margins reaching 26.7%, the highest reading in the eight-quarter data set and 30 basis points above the prior-year comparable quarter’s 26.4%.
That gross margin expansion came despite a 6% decline in North America revenue, which means Power Systems and pricing carried a segment in structural cyclical decline while the truck market recovers.
Operating income of $0.80 billion and operating margins of 9.5% in Q1 2026 represent the trough of the current data set, compressing 300 basis points from the 12.5% peak recorded in Q1 2025, driven by SG&A of $0.85 billion and R&D of $0.36 billion running at the highest combined level in the data set.
The R&D spend reflects the HELM platform development cycle ahead of the EPA 2027 diesel launch, the new natural gas engine, and the mining engine. These expenses are not structural overhead. They are the capex equivalent of a product cycle. Mark Smith confirmed at the Analyst Day that R&D as a percentage of sales will begin to step down after the 2027 platform launches.
The gap between an expanding gross margin and a compressed operating margin is the setup, not the story. The story is what happens to operating leverage when the truck market normalizes and peak R&D rolls off in the same window that Power Systems revenue is compounding toward $9 billion.
Is Cummins Stock Undervalued in 2026? TIKR’s $807 Target and the Long Cycle the Market Has Not Priced
TIKR’s mid-case model values Cummins stock at around $807 by December 2030, implying a total return of approximately 21% from the current price of around $669, or roughly 4% annualized over the 4.6-year horizon.
The low case produces a stock price of around $807 with a total return of around 21% and an IRR of approximately 2%. The mid case reaches around $1,033 by the full 10-year model horizon with a total return of around 55% and an IRR of approximately 5%. The high case implies around $1,276 and a total return of around 91%, or approximately 8% annualized.
CMI appears to be undervalued relative to the earnings architecture the data supports — not because the current price is wrong for a business earning at today’s margins, but because the market is pricing Cummins as a cyclical industrial at peak earnings, when the 2026 to 2030 window is the first time in the company’s history where data center growth, an on-highway content cycle, and an aftermarket expansion are running simultaneously.
The TIKR model captures that compounding. The street mean target, at around $725, does not.
Is Cummins Stock a Buy Right Now?
CMI stock has 19 analysts covering it with a street mean target of around $725 and a high target of $845. Nine analysts rate it a Buy or Strong Buy.
The bull case rests on two independent growth drivers running in parallel through 2030: accelerating data center power revenue, which Cummins targets at $9 billion by 2030 versus around $5 billion today, and EPA 2027 content additions in both Engines and Components as the North American truck market recovers from a cyclical trough.
If both drivers execute, the street mean underestimates the stock.
What Is the CMI Stock Price Target for 2026?
The street mean target for CMI stock as of late May 2026 is around $725, with a high target of $845. Following Q1 earnings, at least six brokerages raised their targets, with Jefferies at $775 and Citi at $770 representing the upper end of the revised consensus.
The TIKR mid-case model values CMI at around $807 by December 2030 based on mid-case assumptions of approximately 7% revenue growth CAGR and approximately 12% net income margins.
Should You Invest in Cummins Inc.?
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