Key Takeaways
- Crown Castle shares jumped 12% today after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is in talks to lease space on its towers, as part of a push for at least 80,000 US cell sites.
- A SpaceX network would give Crown Castle a big new tenant just as management expects 2026 to be the low point for organic growth.
- American Tower rose 7%, while AT&T and Verizon fell 5% and 3% on the threat of a fourth nationwide carrier.
- Nothing is signed yet, so Crown Castle’s 2027 outlook, due early next year, is the next thing to watch.
Crown Castle (CCI) shares jumped 12% today after Bloomberg reported after Thursday’s close that SpaceX (SPCX) is in talks to lease space on its towers.
SpaceX reportedly wants at least 80,000 US cell sites for a nationwide wireless network of its own, and the deals could run into the billions. Fellow tower owner American Tower (AMT) rose 7%, while AT&T (T) and Verizon Communications (VZ) fell 4% and 3%.
Spectrum first, now towers
SpaceX’s $8 billion spectrum buy earlier this month already sent Crown Castle up 13% in a day. But airwaves need antennas on the ground, and Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon thinks this step matters more:
“Committing ~$30 billion into spectrum is serious enough. Committing to 80K macro sites could be a point of no return.”
Crown Castle CEO Chris Hillabrant declined to discuss specific customers on Wednesday’s earnings call. When asked whether Crown Castle is talking leases with SpaceX and other satellite providers, he said: “You can assume that we’re talking to all parties.”
Right on time
SpaceX would be a welcome tenant. Crown Castle has sold its fiber and small cell businesses, and DISH and Sprint equipment has been coming off its towers. Analysts expect revenue to bottom at $4.03 billion this year, then reach $4.20 billion by 2028…
CFO Sunit Patel said on the same call, “We continue to expect 2026 to mark the low point for organic growth.” A carrier building a network from scratch would add to the recovery from there.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Crown Castle. How many say “Buy”?
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Still not priced for a fourth carrier
Even after today’s jump, Crown Castle trades closer to 18x forward AFFO. That’s below its five-year average of 19x and far from its 29x peak in late 2021…
The risk is that AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile are Crown Castle’s biggest customers, and a well-funded fourth carrier would squeeze all three.
My take: that’s a fair trade for Crown Castle. The incumbents still need their towers wherever their customers go, and SpaceX would be paying for tens of thousands of new leases on top.
Of course, nothing is signed, and SpaceX hasn’t said how many of those sites it wants from Crown Castle. Watch Crown Castle’s 2027 outlook, due with fourth-quarter results early next year, for the first sign of SpaceX in its leasing numbers.
So what is Crown Castle stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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