Key Stats for Broadcom Stock
- Current Price: $352.81
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,160
- Street Target: ~$530
- Potential Total Return: ~229%
- Annualized IRR: ~34% / year
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What Happened?
On Sept. 23, Reuters relayed a Financial Times report that Beijing’s state-asset regulator has been surveying Broadcom (AVGO) switches inside state-controlled data centers, which Reuters could not verify. Accounts of that day’s trading conflict, but shares closed at $352.81 on Sept. 25, 26.74% below their peak on TIKR’s 1-year drawdown chart.
TIKR’s segment data shows China, including Hong Kong, fell from 32% of revenue in fiscal 2023 to 17% in fiscal 2025. Broadcom’s investor relations materials do not break out state-run data center sales, so the test is what the review can and cannot reach.
What Beijing’s Review Can Reach, and What It Can’t
Broadcom switches could account for as much as 90% of the equipment at some state-owned companies, according to people cited by the FT. SASAC may informally guide state-run data centers to scale them back, and it is also reportedly examining whether Broadcom used its market position to bundle products or require large switch-chip purchases. The survey is preliminary, and the bundling question is an inquiry, not a finding; neither is a ban.
State-backed data centers already bar Nvidia (NVDA) products, and domestic suppliers such as Huawei stand to gain if guidance follows. Any action would reportedly not affect privately run sites such as Alibaba’s or ByteDance’s. Broadcom’s 10-K books revenue primarily by delivery location, noting a substantial portion of products shipped to China ends up in devices sold in the U.S. and Europe.
China revenue went from $11.53 billion in fiscal 2023 to $11.16 billion in fiscal 2025, while total revenue rose from $35.82 billion to $63.89 billion, so all of that growth shipped elsewhere. At Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference on Sept. 8, analyst Jim Schneider asked CEO Hock Tan whether Chinese open-weight developers such as DeepSeek or Moonshot could become customers. Tan did not address that directly, saying, “I’m a believer in closed frontier models.”
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Tan Put a Date on the Cash Decision
“We usually do a capital allocation annually in the December Board meeting,” Tan said, adding that Broadcom will end its fiscal year with “a record amount of cash sitting on our books.” Because “total debt of about $56 billion was taken up when interest rates were much lower,” he argued against prepaying it, leaving two options: “increase dividends and probably do stock buyback.”
The $10 billion repurchase authorization runs through Dec. 31, 2026. TIKR puts LTM net debt, after cash, at $35.44 billion, with consensus projecting net cash of around $48 billion by the end of fiscal 2027.
On TIKR, the next twelve months’ normalized EPS estimate more than doubled from around $8 on Nov. 2, 2025, to around $17 on Sept. 25, 2026, while the price slipped from $369.63 to $352.81, taking the forward P/E from 44x to 20x. Part of that reflects the 12-month window rolling forward.
Management guided fourth-quarter gross margin to 73%, versus around 78% a year earlier, and free cash flow trailed Street estimates in each of the last five quarters. The gap narrowed to 2.50% in fiscal Q3, from 16.25% a year earlier, with $13.67 billion delivered against around $14 billion expected.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $352.81
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,160
- Potential Total Return: ~229%
- Annualized IRR: ~34% / year
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TIKR’s mid case values Broadcom at around $1,160 by Oct. 31, 2030, implying about 229% total return from $352.81, or around 34% a year. That 2030 scenario is not a 12-month target; Wall Street’s mean target is around $530, with 40 Buys, 7 Outperforms, 3 Holds, and no Underperforms or Sells.
Its inputs, listed by TIKR for a 2025 to 2035 window, assume about 31% annual revenue growth, a net margin near 58%, and a P/E shrinking about 8% a year. AI semiconductors and infrastructure software (the latter $27.03 billion in fiscal 2025) drive revenue, while operating leverage offsets a lower gross margin.
The upside is AI revenue landing on schedule while buybacks shrink the share count.
The downside is further margin erosion or work shifting away at one of Broadcom’s six custom-chip customers.
Conclusion
Fiscal Q4 ends Nov. 1, and the board usually sets capital allocation in December; fiscal 2025 results came on Dec. 11, 2025. A good read is revenue at or above the $34.8 billion guide, gross margin near 73%, and a repurchase authorization above $10 billion. A smaller authorization, or SASAC guidance that reaches beyond state-run sites, would signal more downside risk.
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Should You Invest in Broadcom?
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Pull up Broadcom, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
