Key Takeaways
- Shopify fell 10% today after its third-quarter report, and Intel fell 29% on Oct. 30 after its own.
- Shopify’s bad news is a gross merchandise volume miss of under 1%, in a quarter where revenue rose 32% and free cash flow beat expectations.
- Intel’s bad news goes deeper: a fourth-quarter revenue guide well below expectations, a PC slowdown into mid-2027, and free cash flow expected to go negative again in 2027.
Shopify (SHOP) is down 10% today after its third-quarter report, less than a week after Intel (INTC) fell 29% on its own.
Both are big tech names, and both sold off on bad news. But one is a much better buy at today’s prices.
Shopify missed by less than 1%
Shopify’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) came in at $119.1 billion for the quarter. That was up 29%, but about $1 billion short of the $120.1 billion analysts expected. So the miss was under 1%.
The rest of the quarter was strong. Revenue rose 32% to $3.74 billion, in line with expectations. Operating income climbed 66% to $568 million, which lifted the GAAP operating margin to 15% from 12% a year earlier. Free cash flow came in at $816 million, or 22% of revenue, well ahead of the $723 million analysts expected.
The outlook held up too. Shopify expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow at a low-thirties rate. Analysts had about $4.76 billion penciled in, roughly 30% growth on last year’s $3.67 billion, so the guide is at or above where the Street was.
Going into the report, analysts expected Shopify’s normalized EPS to more than double, from $1.43 in 2025 to $3.36 by 2028:
A sub-1% GMV miss in a quarter like this gives me no reason to expect big cuts to that path.
TIKR tracks 54 analysts on Shopify. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Shopify, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Shopify’s Analyst Ratings
Intel’s problem is the outlook
Intel’s quarter itself was fine. Revenue of $16.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.52 both beat its own guidance, and data center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion.
The guide is what sank it. Intel expects fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion. That’s below the third quarter and $1-2 billion under the roughly $17.1 billion analysts expected, with non-GAAP EPS of just $0.25. On its third-quarter call, Intel said it expects PC revenue to fall more than 20% from the third quarter as PC makers work down their inventory. And in Intel’s third-quarter release, CFO David Zinsner said, “we see the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year.”
The stock is down [34%] over the past week.
The bull case for Intel rests on earnings recovering. Going in, analysts had normalized EPS climbing from $0.42 in 2025 to $2.98 by 2028:
The 2027 estimate of $1.81 already showed only modest growth over 2026, and a $0.25 fourth-quarter guide plus a PC slump into mid-2027 put it under even more pressure.
Then there’s the cash. Analysts expect Intel’s capex to rise to about $27.3 billion in 2027, from $19.1 billion in 2026, and its free cash flow to go negative again:
Compare that with Shopify, which spent $2 million on capex last quarter and turned 22% of its revenue into free cash flow.
Intel’s case is cheaper, for a reason
Intel is the cheaper stock. At this morning’s prices, it trades at about 34x 2027 consensus EPS and 21x 2028’s. Shopify trades at about 57x and 42x. Intel’s data center business is growing fast, and even after the slide the stock is still up 67% this year.
But that 21x depends on 2028 going right. It needs PCs to recover, a heavier capex year to pay off and free cash flow to turn positive, all at a company that just guided well below expectations. Shopify costs more, but its estimates rest on a business that’s already growing 32% and throwing off cash. Shopify is also cheaper than usual: about 67x forward earnings at this morning’s price, below the roughly 74x it has averaged over the past three years.
I’d take the smaller problem
The way I see it, Shopify’s selloff gets you a strong business at a lower price. Intel’s asks you to sit through a PC slump and a year of heavy spending before the cash comes back, so Shopify is the better buy.
Of course, Shopify’s multiple leaves less room for error. If GMV falls short again with fourth-quarter results in mid-February, this miss will look less like a one-off.
So what is Shopify stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
