Key Stats for Apple Stock
- Current Price: $319.97
- Target Price (Mid): ~$480
- Street Target: ~$324
- Potential Total Return: ~50%
- Annualized IRR: ~10% / year
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What Happened?
Apple Inc. (AAPL) walks onstage Wednesday, September 9, for the first product keynote in 15 years without Tim Cook running the company. John Ternus became CEO on September 1, Cook moved to executive chairman, and the “Surprise and shine” event is Ternus’s first turn as the public face of Apple. Shares closed at $319.97 on September 4, down 2.51% on the day and off their late-July closing high near $340, so investors are weighing a leadership debut against a soft tape.
Reporting points to a foldable iPhone, rumored to carry an “Ultra” name, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max. That one product carries unusual weight, and to see why, start with the number Apple cannot stop talking about: memory.
The “100-Year Flood” Squeezing the Best Products Apple Has Ever Sold
Apple posted a June-quarter record. Revenue hit $109.4 billion, up 16% year over year, with iPhone up 22% to $54.3 billion, Mac up 29% to $10.4 billion, and diluted EPS of $2.02 up 29%. Those numbers cleared Street estimates across the board, and the stock still could not hold its highs.
On the Q3 call, Cook said Apple “reluctantly raised prices” because “we’re in, what I would characterize as, a 100-year flood on the memory pricing with exponential increases in memory prices.” CFO Kevan Parekh put the margin math plainly: moving from the March quarter’s adjusted 49.3% gross margin toward the September guide near 46.5%, “more than 100%” of that decline traces to memory, far more than foreign exchange.
Cook called it “a demand forecast issue to be candid, where the iPhone and the Mac are both doing remarkably better than we thought they would do.” Apple has been pulling chip supply forward, but as Cook put it, “at some point, there’s a limit to that.” He also noted the DRAM market has just three suppliers, leaving little slack.
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Why One Rumored Phone Carries So Much of the Story
On August 10, Jefferies analyst Edison Lee downgraded Apple to Underperform, a Sell-equivalent, cutting his target to $263.66. His supply-chain checks indicated Apple canceled its planned all-glass iPhone over low yields, which he called a “major setback to efforts to bring in higher-priced iPhones amid soaring memory costs.” He named the foldable as the “only key driver of higher ASP and margin” near-term, and warned memory inflation could push its entry price past $2,000, limiting demand to a premium few.
The stakes follow directly. If average selling prices are the lever Apple needs to offset memory costs, and the all-glass redesign is gone, the foldable has to do the work. The caution matters, though: the cancellation is a reported supply-chain check, not an Apple confirmation, and the foldable’s price is rumored, not announced. Lee is one of only a handful of bears against a Street that stays overwhelmingly positive.
Apple’s own answer is Services. The segment set a June-quarter record at $30.7 billion, up 12%, at a 75.6% gross margin that dwarfs hardware, with paid subscriptions past 1.5 billion across a 2.5 billion-device installed base. As the mix tilts toward Services, Apple can absorb hardware margin pain that would sink a pure device maker.
Against peers, that mix explains the premium: Apple trades at 26.5x NTM EV/EBITDA versus 12.2x for Xiaomi and 7.7x for Lenovo, and near 35x forward earnings. Investors are paying for a 75%-margin Services engine, so the gross margin gap reads as defensible rather than absurd.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $319.97
- Target Price (Mid): ~$480
- Potential Total Return: ~50%
- Annualized IRR: ~10% / year
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Using the mid-case, TIKR’s model points to a target near $480 by September 2030, roughly 50% upside over about four years, or near 10% annualized. The case rests on two revenue drivers: Services compounding at a double-digit rate off a 2.5 billion-device base, and an iPhone cycle whose demand is currently outrunning supply. The margin driver is mix, a steady tilt toward a net income margin around 27% as Services outgrows hardware. The primary risk is the memory flood itself: if component inflation outpaces Services leverage and Apple cannot lift ASPs, the margin assumption breaks and the multiple compresses with it.
The upside is that Apple turns a record installed base and a new AI-driven Siri cycle into durable Services growth as the supply crunch eases, carrying shares toward the mid-case. The downside is memory costs climbing into fiscal 2027, a foldable too niche at $2,000-plus, and a premium multiple that gives way toward the bearish view. The model uses an entry near the $319.97 TIKR close from September 4.
Conclusion
Wednesday is the first read on whether ASPs can rise into a memory squeeze. Watch the foldable’s price and positioning: a genuine flagship priced to sell signals Apple still has pricing power, while a $2,000-plus halo device tells you Lee’s ASP worry has teeth. The harder confirmation comes at the fiscal Q4 print in late October, when the September-quarter gross margin lands against the 46.5% guide midpoint. A margin near guidance with Services still compounding keeps the mid-case intact. A miss on both, with memory running hotter than management framed, is where the bear thesis stops being a minority opinion.
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Should You Invest in Apple?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Apple, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
