Key Takeaways
- SpaceX stock is up 17% over the last week, with solid gains yesterday after Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas reiterated his $300 price target.
- Analysts expect SpaceX’s revenue to grow from $45 billion in 2026 to $201 billion in 2028.
- The next tests are Starship’s upcoming test flights and SpaceX’s third-quarter results in late October.
SpaceX (SPCX) just got another vote of confidence from one of Wall Street’s biggest bulls.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas reiterated his $300 price target in a note titled “SPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper.” His pitch:
“We think that over the next few weeks (ahead of Starship Flight 15), investors can take advantage of a unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap.”
The stock closed up more than 7% on Monday at $171.09, its highest close since June. Even after that jump, the target sits about 75% higher.
Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire, whose firm is a longtime SpaceX backer, noted on Monday: “We are seeing the very beginning of investors starting to understand SpaceX.”
Why so few own it
Jonas says barely any of his clients own the stock at the presentations he attends, and he blames how hard the business is to judge:
“Only a select handful of people in the world understand the engineering challenges with Starship’s heat shield or the inner workings of a full-flow staged combustion rocket engine to properly judge the testing path. Fewer still can say where compute pricing is heading as agentic token demand grows.”
He’s working from a sum-of-the-parts analysis, meaning he values each business separately and adds them up. In his view, investors fully value Space & Connectivity (launch and Starlink) but give little credit for AI: the compute deals, chipmaking and the rest. Musk is pushing hard the other way. On Sunday he posted that “SpaceX is a super intelligence company.”
Here’s why the ownership number matters: if most big investors don’t own SpaceX yet, every one who changes their mind has to buy shares. How fast that happens is pure speculation on my part. But we’ve already seen the flow go the other way. The stock fell more than 30% from its June 16 record close of $201.80 in the run-up to its first post-IPO unlock, the date early holders were first allowed to sell. It’s recovered about 58% since its early-August low.
The growth is the bull case
Jonas’ target rests on growth. Analysts expect revenue of $45 billion this year, $114 billion in 2027 and $201 billion in 2028…
Put differently, revenue more than doubles next year, then grows about another 75% in 2028. That’s roughly 4.5 times this year’s figure in two years.
A reiterated PT from Morgan Stanley doesn’t change those estimates. What could change them are the things Jonas is watching: Starship progress, new AI products, and more “neocloud contracts” at premium pricing.
Next up: Starship still has to catch its upper stage on a coming test flight. Morgan Stanley calls that “the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO,” and a miss would hand the doubters a fresh argument.
So what is SpaceX stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what SpaceX could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
