Key Stats for Amgen Stock
- 52-Week Range: $268 to $391
- Current Price: $350
- Street Mean Target: $352
- Street High Target: $427
- Analyst Consensus: 10 Buy, 4 Outperform, 18 Hold, 1 Underperform, 2 Sell
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $467
Amgen Stock Beats Q1 Estimates and Raises Guidance, but the IRS Notice Sent It Down 5%
Amgen (AMGN) delivered a Q1 2026 beat on both revenue and earnings while raising full-year guidance, yet the stock fell roughly 5% after the earnings call because management disclosed a draft IRS notice of proposed adjustment covering tax years 2016 to 2018.
The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 6% year-over-year, matching consensus, while non-GAAP EPS rose 5% to $5.15, clearing analyst expectations of $4.76.
Six designated growth drivers — Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, the rare disease portfolio, the innovative oncology portfolio, and biosimilars — collectively grew 24% year-over-year and generated approximately $5.6 billion in Q1 sales, representing nearly 70% of total product sales.
Repatha was the clearest standout, producing $876 million in Q1 sales, up 34% year-over-year, driven by a 44% rise in U.S. new-to-brand prescriptions following positive VESALIUS-CV subgroup data showing a 31% reduction in major cardiovascular events in high-risk primary prevention patients with diabetes.
UPLIZNA surged 188% year-over-year to $262 million, with roughly half of gMG patients coming in biologically naive and the other half switching from existing therapies, demonstrating that Amgen built real primary-market share rather than cannibalizing its own install base.
IMDELLTRA delivered $258 million in the quarter and is now annualizing above $1 billion, having reached more than 1,800 U.S. treatment sites including a majority in the community setting, a sign of durable commercial penetration rather than academic-center pull-through.
The company raised full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of $37.1 billion to $38.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $21.70 to $23.10, lifted by what CEO Robert Bradway called a “springboard year” thesis in which growth assets absorb ongoing Prolia and XGEVA erosion.
The IRS tax matter covers the same transfer pricing issue already being litigated for 2010 to 2015, with the IRS arguing Amgen’s Puerto Rico operations should be treated as limited-value contract manufacturing; Amgen disagrees, and CFO Peter Griffith said on the Q1 call that the new NOPA is “just an early step in what we would expect to be a multiyear process.”
On the pipeline, Amgen disclosed three new Phase 3 MariTide studies, including a SWITCH trial evaluating patients who transition from weekly semaglutide or tirzepatide to MariTide on an every-8-week or quarterly schedule, a design that directly targets the retention-failure problem afflicting rival GLP-1 agents.
The EU granted marketing authorization for IMDELLTRA (tarlatamab) in advanced small-cell lung cancer in early June following Phase 3 DeLLphi-304 data showing a 40% reduction in death risk versus chemotherapy and a median overall survival of 13.6 months compared to 8.3 months on the control arm.
Amgen Stock Holds a Hold-Weighted Consensus Despite a Growth Portfolio Running at 24%
The analyst split on Amgen stock tells a particular story: 10 buys and 4 outperforms against 18 holds, 1 underperform, and 2 sells, with a mean Street target of around $352 that implies essentially no upside from the current price of $350.
The hold concentration reflects two legitimate concerns — the IRS tax litigation overhang and the uncertainty around MariTide’s Phase 3 efficacy readout — rather than a fundamental disagreement about the business.
On revenue, Q1 2026 came in at $8.6 billion, up 5.8% year-over-year, and the consensus for Q2 2026 projects around $9.4 billion, approximately 3% growth.
The revenue trajectory decelerates into 2027 at around 2% to 3% year-over-year growth as denosumab biosimilar competition continues to intensify, which is the forward-looking basis for the holds.
EBITDA for Q1 2026 came in at $4.84 billion, down 3% year-over-year, reflecting the margin compression from higher R&D spending and increased royalty expenses, but the consensus projects Q2 2026 EBITDA of approximately $5.9 billion, up around 4% year-over-year, as the product mix shifts back toward higher-margin growth assets.
Meanwhile, the Street’s EPS picture is complicated by the IRS matter; normalized EPS for Q1 2026 was $5.15, up 5.1% year-over-year, and the consensus projects full-year 2026 normalized EPS in the range of roughly $22, consistent with the top end of Amgen’s own guidance range.
The high Street target of $427 belongs to analysts who credit MariTide with a meaningful revenue contribution before the end of the decade; the median and mean are anchored by the majority who do not.
The Street is not wrong about the IRS risk, which is real and material, but it is arguably underweighting a portfolio that is already absorbing patent expirations in real time: Prolia fell 34% year-over-year to $727 million in Q1, and the six growth drivers collectively grew fast enough to lift total product sales anyway.
AMGN stock is priced as if the growth portfolio is speculative, when it is already generating run-rate revenue above $22 billion annualized across the six drivers alone, making it modestly undervalued at current levels relative to what the portfolio is already delivering.
Amgen Stock Leads Gilead and Regeneron on Revenue Scale, but EBITDA Tells a Tighter Story
Amgen stock’s Q1 2026 revenue of $8.62 billion towers over Gilead’s (GILD) $6.94 billion and Regeneron’s (REGN) $3.56 billion in the same quarter, a scale advantage that reflects Amgen’s broader therapeutic diversification across oncology, cardiovascular, rare disease, and inflammation.
On EBITDA, Amgen generated $4.84 billion in Q1 2026, ahead of Gilead’s $1.45 billion, though the EBITDA margin gap narrows considerably when scaled to revenue — a signal that Gilead’s cost structure compresses more tightly against a narrower revenue base.
Consensus projects Amgen revenue accelerating to around $10 billion in Q4 2026, widening its revenue lead over Gilead at roughly $8.2 billion and Regeneron at approximately $4.3 billion, while EBITDA is expected to recover to roughly $5.6 billion for Amgen versus approximately $2.1 billion for Gilead, suggesting the portfolio mix shift already visible in the growth driver data should translate into margin normalization through the second half.
Is Amgen Stock Undervalued in 2026? TIKR’s $467 Target Implies a 34% Total Return
TIKR’s base case values Amgen at approximately $467 by December 2030, implying around 34% total return from the current price of $350 over roughly 4.6 years, or approximately 7% annualized.
The mid case assumes around 3% revenue CAGR, approximately 35% net income margin, and roughly 4% EPS CAGR through 2035, with P/E multiple essentially flat over the period.
If the denosumab erosion runs faster than modeled or MariTide encounters a Phase 3 tolerability issue, the low case produces approximately $484 by 2034 with around 4% annualized returns, a scenario where the growth portfolio covers the cliff but multiple compression prevents meaningful re-rating.
If Repatha’s primary prevention penetration continues accelerating and olpasiran delivers a positive cardiovascular outcome in the OCEAN(a) trial, the high case reaches approximately $683, implying around 95% total return or roughly 8% annualized, a scenario that requires the cardiometabolic franchise to become the dominant earnings driver ahead of schedule.
The scenario that shapes the base case most precisely is whether the hold-weighted consensus upgrades when MariTide Phase 3 efficacy data arrives, because re-rating from a modest hold to a buy distribution would likely compress the multiple gap faster than the earnings growth alone.
What is the price target for Amgen stock?
The Street mean target is around $352 based on 30 analyst estimates as of early June 2026, with a high target of $427. TIKR’s mid-case model sets a longer-term target of approximately $467 by December 2030, implying around 34% total return.
Is Amgen stock a buy right now?
The current consensus is hold-weighted: 10 buys, 4 outperforms, 18 holds, 1 underperform, 2 sells.
The bull case rests on MariTide differentiation and Repatha’s primary prevention penetration; the bear case centers on the IRS tax litigation and decelerating revenue growth as denosumab biosimilar competition intensifies through 2026.
What is MariTide and why does it matter for Amgen stock?
MariTide is Amgen’s investigational obesity drug, a GIP-receptor-blocking, GLP-1-activating antibody-peptide conjugate designed for monthly or less frequent dosing.
Amgen management highlighted its potential to capture patients dissatisfied with the weekly injection burden of competing GLP-1 therapies. The drug is in Phase 3 development; efficacy data will be the primary re-rating catalyst for Amgen stock over the next 12 to 24 months.
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