After a 45% Fall In the Last 12 Months, Can SentinelOne Stock Recover in 2026?

Key Takeaways:

• AI-Driven Growth: Purple AI achieved record 40% attach rate, with data solutions bookings growing triple digits year-over-year.
• Price Projection: Based on current execution, S stock could reach $20.06 by January 2028.
• Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 44.6% from the current price of $13.87.
• Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 20.7% growth over the next 2 years.

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SentinelOne (S) delivered solid third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, exceeding expectations on both revenue and profitability.

CEO Tomer Weingarten highlighted strong momentum across the Singularity platform, with non-endpoint solutions representing approximately half of quarterly bookings.

This diversification signals the company’s successful transition from a pure endpoint security player to a comprehensive AI-native cybersecurity platform.

• The cybersecurity company reported 23% year-over-year ARR growth and achieved a significant milestone: sustainable quarterly profitability.
• The company’s Purple AI assistant continues to exceed expectations, reaching a record 40% attach rate in Q3.
• This rapid adoption demonstrates strong demand for AI-powered security operations that automate threat investigations, accelerate detection, and strengthen response.
• Data solutions emerged as another standout performer, with bookings accelerating to triple-digit year-over-year growth.
• The recent acquisition of Observo AI strengthens SentinelOne’s position by giving it control over the entire data pipeline—from telemetry ingestion through analytics to response.
• Cloud security also gained traction, posting its strongest bookings growth in the last 12 months.
• As enterprises expand cloud environments and AI workloads, demand for comprehensive cloud-native protection is accelerating.
• SentinelOne reached operating profitability of 7% in Q3, improving margins by nearly 1,200 basis points year-over-year.
• The company also achieved its highest quarterly net income margin at 10% and delivered 6% free cash flow margin.

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What the Model Says for SentinelOne Stock

We analyzed SentinelOne’s transformation into an AI-native cybersecurity platform provider, with capabilities expanding beyond traditional endpoint protection.

• The company benefits from multiple growth drivers. Purple AI’s rapid adoption and the shift toward autonomous security operations create immediate monetization opportunities.
• Meanwhile, the Observo AI acquisition positions SentinelOne to capture a growing share of the security data analytics market as enterprises seek alternatives to legacy SIEM solutions.
• International markets are showing strong momentum, growing 34% year over year and accounting for 40% of total revenue.
• This geographic diversification reduces concentration risk while tapping into regions with accelerating cloud and cybersecurity spending.

Using a forecast of 19.8% annual revenue growth and 7.4% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $20.06 within 2 years. This assumes a 52x price-to-earnings multiple.

That represents compression from SentinelOne’s historical P/E averages of 79x (one year) and 28.6x (three years). The lower multiple acknowledges near-term execution risks as the company scales its sales organization and integrates recent acquisitions.

The real value lies in capturing the shift toward AI-powered security operations and displacing legacy cybersecurity infrastructure across enterprises globally.

Our Valuation Assumptions

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Our Valuation Assumptions

TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.

Here’s what we used for SentinelOne stock:

1. Revenue Growth: 19.8%

SentinelOne’s growth centers on platform expansion beyond endpoint security.

The company delivered 23% ARR growth in Q3, driven by strong contributions from Purple AI, data solutions, and cloud security.

Management sees continued momentum as enterprises adopt AI-native security platforms.

The introduction of SentinelOne Flex—which allows dynamic consumption across the platform—is already driving larger multi-solution deals and longer customer commitments.

Recent acquisitions of Observo AI and Prompt Security expand the addressable market into security data pipelines and generative AI security, creating new revenue streams.

2. Operating margins: 7.4%

SentinelOne reached operating profitability in Q3 for the first time, achieving 7% operating margin.

This performance reflects improving operational efficiency as the company scales.

Management expects continued margin expansion through operating leverage, though strategic investments in cloud infrastructure and integration of acquisitions will moderate near-term gains.

The path to sustained double-digit margins appears realistic as the business matures.

3. Exit P/E Multiple: 52x

The market currently values SentinelOne at 53x earnings. We assume the P/E will compress slightly to 52x over our forecast period as the company proves consistent profitability.

High-growth cybersecurity platforms typically command premium multiples, especially those leading in AI-powered security.

As SentinelOne demonstrates durable revenue growth alongside expanding margins, it should maintain valuation premiums versus traditional security vendors.

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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?

Cybersecurity companies face competitive pressures and execution risks. Here’s how SentinelOne stock might perform under different scenarios through January 2030:

• Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 15.4% and net income margins reach 8.8%, investors still see a 58.3% total return (12.3% annually).
• Mid Case: With 17.1% growth and 9.6% margins, we expect a total return of 113.3% (21.0% annually).
• High Case: If AI security adoption accelerates, driving 18.8% revenue growth while SentinelOne achieves 10.3% margins, returns could hit 179.9% total (29.6% annually).

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The range reflects execution on platform expansion, successful integration of acquisitions, and the company’s ability to sustain profitability while investing for growth.

In the worst case, competition intensifies, or AI security adoption disappoints.

In best case, SentinelOne becomes the standard platform for AI-native security operations as enterprises abandon legacy tools faster than expected.

How Much Upside Does SentinelOne Stock Have From Here?

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All it takes is three simple inputs:

• Revenue Growth
• Operating Margins
• Exit P/E Multiple

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!