Key Takeaways
- AEVEX shares rose 13.2% on Thursday after the company said no Navy drone-boat orders had been halted, a day after a Bloomberg report sent the stock down 32%.
- AEVEX’s delivery count holds up: it says it delivered all 325 contracted boats in 2025, and the Navy’s numbers match, though the Navy hasn’t said whether more orders are on hold.
- The bigger question is what BlackSea sells the Navy after the current contract, worth about $350 million, ends in June 2027.
- Analysts are split after the crash: Oppenheimer started at Outperform with a $21 target, while Piper Sandler cut its target to $13.
AEVEX (AVEX) shares closed up 13.2% on Thursday, after the company pushed back on a report that sank its stock 32% on Wednesday.
The report, from Bloomberg’s Katrina Manson, said the U.S. Navy had stopped new orders for the Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft (GARC), the drone boat built by AEVEX’s BlackSea unit, after an independent assessment flagged hardware problems.
After Wednesday’s close, AEVEX said the reports include “factual inaccuracies” and that “no orders have been halted.”
AEVEX’s Boat Count Checks Out
AEVEX says it completed its GARC deliveries in 2025, with 325 boats, and that no more were planned for procurement.
A Navy spokesperson reportedly said the service spent about $136.8 million on 24 prototypes and 301 GARCs, which matches AEVEX’s 325 boats. The spokesperson didn’t say whether more orders had been halted, though.
And the contract keeps paying. Changes this year lifted its value to about $350 million through June 2027, for new mission packages on boats the Navy already has, including mine-countermeasure gear in the Strait of Hormuz.
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The Next Boats Have to Carry the Growth
So the real question is what BlackSea, bought for up to $650 million earlier this year, sells the Navy after mid-2027. Next up are its Chaser and Comet drone boats.
Analysts expect total revenue to grow roughly 20% in 2027 and 16% in 2028, taking it from about $760 million this year to about $1.06 billion.
The delivery count doesn’t settle those estimates. Future Navy orders remain a risk for BlackSea’s share of that growth: the report’s sources said cheaper one-way attack drones suit similar missions better, which makes Chaser and Comet a harder sell.
Wall Street Can’t Agree
Oppenheimer started coverage on Thursday at Outperform with a $21 target, and Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu called the selloff overdone. Piper Sandler cut its target to $13 from $20 and kept a Neutral rating.
Even after Thursday’s bounce, the stock sits far below where the market has valued it since going public this spring.
It traded at 17x forward earnings at Wednesday’s close, against a 67x average since listing, and at about 19.5x after Thursday’s gain.
Conclusion
AEVEX’s numbers are right, and the contract it already has runs through June 2027. What’s still open is whether the Navy wants more boats after that, and whether the hardware concerns in the report hold up. At a fraction of its usual multiple, the stock has room to win back more of Wednesday’s loss if Chaser or Comet lands a Navy order before the GARC contract winds down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
