Moderna (MRNA) stock sank 17.6% on Thursday to close at $202.63 after Phase 3 data for its personalized melanoma vaccine, intismeran, leaked two days before its ESMO debut. Paired with Keytruda, it cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42%, short of the 0.51 hazard ratio investors had anchored to from Phase 2.
That comparison misses how the drug works. Each vaccine is built from the patient’s own tumor and the regimen runs about six months, a window in which both arms performed the same. After it, a prespecified analysis put the risk cut at 58%.
The Numbers Behind Moderna’s 42%
- Headline: 42% lower risk of recurrence or death (hazard ratio 0.58) against Keytruda alone, across 1,137 patients.
- Two years in: 82% of patients on the combination were alive without recurrence, against 70% on Keytruda alone.
- First six months: no difference (0.99).
- After six months: a prespecified sensitivity analysis showed 58% lower risk (0.42).
- Dosed patients only: a separate modified intention-to-treat analysis, excluding patients who never got their assigned intismeran or placebo, showed 49% lower risk (0.51).
- Still missing: overall survival, which isn’t mature yet.
About $17 Billion for Two Decimal Points
Moderna lost about $43 a share, or roughly $17 billion of market value, ending at $80.90 billion. Merck (MRK), which splits intismeran’s costs and profits 50/50, fell 1.76%.
Consensus has Moderna’s revenue climbing from $2.10 billion in 2026 to $7.53 billion in 2030, a curve that leans on launches like intismeran.
RBC analysts see the data as approvable in the US and Europe, but investors are reassessing how much commercial upside it justifies, including beyond melanoma.
Moderna Stock Still Sits Above the Street
The mean target is $130.58, so even after the drop, Moderna trades 55% above it. That mean sat near $51 before the August topline result, and by September the stock had already run past the Street’s highest target.
Thursday’s selloff moved the stock closer to the Street without undercutting the regulatory plans. Saturday’s October 24 ESMO presentation adds context for the 42% primary result and the post-six-month benefit. The detail that matters most is overall survival, which the companies so far only call a favorable trend.
TIKR Tracks 23 Analysts on Moderna. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Moderna, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Moderna’s Analyst Ratings
So what is Moderna stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what MRNA stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
