Key Takeaways
- TTM Technologies shares fell 27.7% on Thursday, even though its third-quarter revenue hit a record $1.2 billion, up 60%, and its adjusted EPS of $1.46 beat estimates.
- Its fourth-quarter EPS guidance was centered on consensus and its revenue guidance came in a touch below, on a day when AI hardware stocks like Flex, Jabil and MACOM also fell.
- TTM’s first 2027 forecast beats analysts’ estimates, and the stock was already below its five-year average forward P/E before Thursday’s drop, so the selloff looks overdone.
- The main risk is debt: net leverage was 2.8x at the end of September, and three more acquisitions have yet to close.
TTM Technologies (TTMI) reported a record quarter on Thursday that beat Wall Street’s estimates, and the stock still closed down 27.7%.
It had company. Flex (FLEX) closed down 11.1%, Jabil (JBL) 4.8% and MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) 15.9% amid Thursday’s broader selloff in AI hardware stocks.
A quarter of records
“Once again, we delivered quarterly records for both net sales and non-GAAP EPS,” said CEO Edwin Roks. TTM reported before Thursday’s open:
- Revenue of $1.2 billion, up 60% and ahead of the $1.13 billion analysts expected
- Adjusted EPS of $1.46, against a $1.26 consensus
- Data Center and Networking sales up 115%, now 41% of the total
- An adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.1%, above 20% for the first time
In line wasn’t enough
The fourth-quarter outlook didn’t give the stock anything new. TTM expects revenue of $1.42 billion to $1.44 billion, a midpoint just under the $1.44 billion analysts expected, and adjusted EPS of $1.77 to $1.83, centered on the $1.80 consensus.
The stock was up about 48% this year going into the report, and an in-line outlook wasn’t going to cut it.
2027 looks even better
TTM’s first 2027 forecast calls for $6.5 billion to $6.75 billion of revenue. That’s more than double 2025’s revenue, and more than analysts expected going in…
The forecast also calls for adjusted EPS of $8.10 to $8.90, against a $7.86 consensus, so I’d expect those estimates to rise.
TIKR Tracks 5 Analysts on TTM Technologies. How Many Say “Buy”?
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The debt is the catch
TTM is paying for some of that growth with debt. After it closed the Swiss Technology Group and Epiq Solutions deals, its net leverage was 2.8x at the end of September. It still has three more deals to close, including the $650 million Ophir Optics purchase. Roks expects leverage to be back in TTM’s 1.5x to 2.0x target range by the time Ophir closes, though free cash flow was just $35.7 million over the first three quarters.
Cheaper than usual
TTM went into the report at 15x forward earnings. That’s just under its five-year average of 16x and far below the nearly 50x it hit in May…
…and after Thursday’s drop, it’s closer to 11x.
TTM’s in-line outlook landed on a rough day for AI hardware, and nothing in the release breaks the growth story. With 2027 guidance above consensus and the stock below its usual multiple, this drop looks overdone to me.
Of course, that depends on TTM hitting its 2027 forecast while it absorbs three more deals.
So what is TTM Technologies stock actually worth?
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