Key Takeaways
- A fund with $3.9 billion in US stocks sold all of its Monolithic Power, AXT and KLA shares by June 30, according to its latest 13F.
- Monolithic Power was the biggest sale. It made up 6.7% of the fund at the end of March, and the stock is up 15% since then.
- Analysts’ average targets are 44% to 93% above the three stocks’ latest prices, and the lowest target on each stock is above its price too.
- KLA looks like the best buy of the three. Its stock is back where it was at the end of March, and every analyst’s target is above it.
A fund with $3.9 billion in US stocks cleared three chip names out of its portfolio in the second quarter. Wall Street thinks all three are worth more than they trade for today.
Monolithic Power (MPWR) was the biggest sale, followed by AXT (AXTI) and KLA (KLAC), according to Anther Capital’s 13F for the quarter ended June 30, filed Aug. 13. A 13F shows only what a fund held on the last day of each quarter, so there’s no way to know when Anther sold, at what price, or why.
Monolithic Power was the big one
Anther held 233,288 Monolithic Power shares worth $255 million on March 31, according to its 13F for that quarter. That was 6.7% of the fund. By June 30, all of them were gone, and the stock is up 15% since March 31.
It hasn’t been a smooth ride, though. Monolithic Power closed at $1,689.89 on June 3, its high for the past year, and it’s 26% below that now.
Analysts haven’t followed it down. Their average target has climbed from $1,196 last December to $1,821, just shy of its August peak of $1,843.
That target is 44% above the last close. It comes from 16 analysts, and even the lowest target, $1,500, is above today’s price. At about 30x forward earnings, though, the stock isn’t cheap.
TIKR tracks 17 analysts on Monolithic Power. How many say “Buy”?
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AXT has been a roller coaster
Anther’s AXT stake was smaller: 1.31 million shares worth $74 million on March 31, or 1.9% of the fund. The stock is down 17% since then. A year ago it closed at $8.46, and on May 22 it got as high as $140.83.
The business news has mostly been good. Analysts more than doubled their 2027 revenue estimates in early October. AXT also lined up $545 million of financing for Tongmei, its Chinese subsidiary, because demand for indium phosphide is outrunning supply. Then the stock dropped 14% in a week after a record quarter.
The Street’s average target has gone from $4.40 a year ago to $91.60, a bit below its June high.
That’s 93% above the last close. But only six analysts cover AXT, and their targets run from $55 to $125, so I’d put less weight on the average here.
KLA ran, then gave it all back
Anther held 47,819 KLA shares worth $70 million on March 31, or 1.8% of the fund. KLA split its stock 10-for-1 in June. Adjusted for the split, the stock is about where it was at the end of March.
In between, it doubled. KLA closed at $301.71 on June 30, its high for the past year, and has lost about half of that since.
Analysts barely flinched. Their average target rose from $112 a year ago to $235 in mid-July, and it has eased only a little since.
KLA has 29 analysts covering it, and their average target is 47% above the last close. The lowest target, $175, is above it too.
KLA is the one I’d buy back
Of course, analysts are often slow to cut their targets when a stock falls fast. A wide gap to the average target can just mean the Street hasn’t caught up yet.
Still, if I could only buy one of the three right now, it’d be KLA. It trades at about 24x forward earnings, compared with 30x for Monolithic Power, and it has the most analyst coverage. The stock is also back where it was before its run, and even the lowest target is above it.
AXT has more upside on paper. But with only six analysts and a stock that’s gone from $8 to $141 to $48 in a year, it’s a much shakier bet. Monolithic Power is up 15% since Anther last reported holding it, so in hindsight that sale looks early. At 30x, though, I wouldn’t chase it either.
Anther’s next 13F, for the quarter ended Sept. 30, is due by Nov. 16. It will show us whether the fund bought any of the three back. For KLA, I’d also watch whether analysts start cutting their targets toward the stock price. If they do, I’d rethink it.
So what is Monolithic Power stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
