Key Takeaways
- A fund that manages $1.6 billion bought new stakes in Home Depot and Dycom Industries and added to DICK’S Sporting Goods in the second quarter, its latest 13F shows.
- Home Depot is up 0.8% since June 30, while Dycom has fallen 58% and DICK’S 35%, both hit by their August reports.
- Analysts’ average targets sit 7% above Home Depot’s latest close, 9% above DICK’S and 142% above Dycom’s.
- Dycom looks like the best buy of the three at about 12x forward earnings, and its report later in November is the next test.
A fund that manages $1.6 billion made its three biggest buys of the second quarter in Home Depot (HD), Dycom Industries (DY) and DICK’S Sporting Goods (DKS).
That’s from Shellback Capital’s 13F for the quarter ended June 30, filed Aug. 14, its latest. A lot has happened since, and two of the three have dropped hard.
Home Depot became its biggest holding
The fund held 123,900 Home Depot shares worth $44 million at June 30. That was 3.8% of its 13F stocks and its largest position. It held none three months earlier.
The stock is up 0.8% from its June 30 close, and the business hasn’t given it much reason to move. Same-store sales rose 1.7% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, but customer transactions fell 1.0%, and they’ve kept falling in a frozen housing market. Analysts now expect $15.99 of adjusted EPS in fiscal 2027, down from $17.74 at the end of September 2025.
The analysts’ average target has come down with those estimates, from $439 a year ago to $379:
That’s 7% above the latest close, from 36 analysts. At about 23x forward earnings, the stock trades a bit above its 22x five-year average on TIKR, so it’s priced for the slow growth analysts expect. Home Depot reports in mid-November.
TIKR tracks 36 analysts on Home Depot. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Home Depot, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Home Depot’s Analyst Ratings
Dycom has fallen 58% since June
Dycom was a new position too: 72,663 shares worth $37 million at June 30, 3.2% of the fund’s 13F stocks and its fifth-largest.
The stock is down 58% since June 30, most of it after Dycom’s late-August report. The quarter itself was strong. Dycom earned $5.29 a share in adjusted EPS for the three months to Aug. 1, above the $4.40-$4.82 it had guided to, and revenue rose 45.6% to $2.01 billion. But it pushed about $150 million of wireless work into next fiscal year. Its margins also came under pressure from spending to scale up and from higher fuel costs. The board authorized a $150 million buyback the same week.
Analysts’ average target climbed from $308 a year ago to $637 at the end of May, and has since slipped to $513:
That’s 142% above the latest close, from 12 analysts, and even the lowest target, $375, sits far above the price. With a gap that wide, either the analysts or the market has Dycom badly wrong. At about 12x forward earnings, I lean toward the analysts.
DICK’S has a Foot Locker problem
Where the fund started fresh in Home Depot and Dycom, it built on an existing stake in DICK’S. It raised its share count 238% in the quarter, to 135,000 shares worth $31 million, or 2.7% of its 13F stocks.
Like Dycom, DICK’S fell hard on its August report, and it’s down 35% since June 30. Its own stores are doing fine, with comparable sales up 4.9% in the second quarter. Foot Locker is the trouble. Its pro forma comps fell 3.6%, and DICK’S now expects that business to post an operating loss of $40 million to $80 million in fiscal 2026, after earlier expecting a $110 million to $150 million operating profit.
Analysts’ average target peaked at $251 on Aug. 10 and has since fallen to $161:
That’s 9% above the latest close, from 27 analysts, and the lowest target, $99, sits well below the price. The stock trades at about 12x forward earnings, but Foot Locker has to stop losing money before that looks like a bargain. DICK’S reports in late November.
Dycom is the one I’d buy
Of the three, Dycom looks like the best buy today. Home Depot’s estimates are still drifting lower, and DICK’S has a money-losing Foot Locker to fix. Dycom’s latest quarter beat its own guidance, and at about 12x forward earnings, the market expects far less from it than analysts do.
Its targets have already come down from their May peak, though, and another outlook that pushes work out would bring them down again.
The fund’s 13F for Sept. 30, due by Nov. 16, will show whether it held on through the August drops. Then Dycom reports later in November, and I’ll want to hear that the deferred wireless work is still on track for next year.
So what is Home Depot stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Home Depot could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
