Key Takeaways
- Joby Aviation shares jumped 8% after third-quarter revenue of $55.1 million beat estimates and the company raised its 2026 outlook to $135 million-$140 million.
- Most of that revenue came from Blade’s helicopter flights, so certification is still the story.
- Joby expects the FAA flight testing it needs for the White House-backed pilot program to start in the first half of 2027, a bar Archer Aviation faces too.
- Joby’s $2.2 billion in cash can get it there, though more share sales look likely.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) is up 8% today on a third-quarter revenue beat and its second outlook raise in a row.
CEO JoeBen Bevirt said Joby made “important progress on the fifth and final stage of certification.” For Joby and its rival Archer Aviation (ACHR), that’s the bigger news.
Blade carried the quarter
Wednesday’s after-close report had plenty to like:
- Revenue of $55.1 million, against a $40.4 million consensus
- 2026 revenue outlook raised 15% to $135 million-$140 million
- A record 44,000+ Blade passengers
Before the report, analysts expected about $121 million of 2026 revenue, well below the new range:
But Joby credits Blade for the raise. Analysts’ $432 million for 2028 only happens if the air taxi is carrying paying passengers, so I wouldn’t expect today’s news to move it much.
The real catalyst comes in 2027
Joby’s next certification step is TIA flight testing, where FAA pilots fly the aircraft for credit. It expects that to start in the first half of 2027.
And the FAA has said that carrying passengers under the eIPP will require substantial TIA testing. As recently as August, management was aiming for first passengers in 2026. My read: in the US, that’s a 2027 event now.
Archer faces the same rule, and in August it said it leads the industry in certification progress. When it reports next week, watch whether it gives a date for TIA testing that comes before Joby’s.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Joby Aviation. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Joby Aviation, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Joby Aviation’s Analyst Ratings
The cash has to last until then
Joby’s quarterly cash burn has climbed past $200 million:
It used another $195 million in the third quarter and ended September with $2.2 billion. Take out the fourth quarter’s burn and the roughly $500 million Resonant Sciences deal, and what’s left covers about two years of the burn analysts expect for 2027.
Bottom line: the beat is real, and Blade shows people will pay up for vertical flight. But TIA testing is what matters, and Joby will likely sell more shares before it gets there. Of course, its dates have slipped before, and another delay would burn even more cash.
So what is Joby Aviation stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
