Will First Quantum’s Zambia Operations Be the Anchor That Rebuilds Investor Confidence?

First Quantum Minerals (FM) is a global copper producer with additional exposure to nickel and gold. The company operates major mines in Zambia through its Kansanshi and Trident complexes, which include the Sentinel copper mine and the Enterprise nickel mine, as well as operations in Türkiye and Mauritania. The shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the company is headquartered in Vancouver.

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The business has gone through a major reset over the last two years. Cobre Panamá, once its flagship asset, entered a Preservation and Safe Management phase in late 2023 following the Supreme Court of Panama’s striking down of Law 406. The mine is not operating, but the government approved a plan in May 2025 that allowed First Quantum to export remaining copper concentrate, restart the on-site power plant, and stabilize the site while legal and political processes play out.

Management has responded with balance sheet moves and portfolio reshaping. The company placed Ravensthorpe on care and maintenance, signed a new gold stream over Kansanshi production, completed two copper prepayment deals with Jiangxi Copper, and refinanced high-coupon notes with longer-dated 2033 and 2034 issues. First Quantum also continues to advance its long-life growth pipeline at Taca Taca in Argentina and the La Granja and Haquira copper deposits in Peru.

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Financial Story

Q3 revenue reached 1.35 billion dollars, up from 1.28 billion dollars last year, supported by higher copper and gold sales even as nickel softened. Gross profit declined to 360 million dollars from 456 million dollars as cost inflation and heavier depreciation weighed on margins. Operating profit came in at $223 million, down from $329 million last year.

Below the line, financing costs remained high at 201 million dollars, and with 108 million dollars in tax expense, the company reported a net loss of 78 million dollars. Shareholders absorbed a 48-million-dollar loss, translating to negative six cents per share, compared with positive 13 cents a year ago.

Cash flow provided a clearer picture of progress. The company generated 1.20 billion dollars in operating cash during the quarter, boosted by the new Kansanshi gold stream and the previously completed copper prepayment agreements. Gross debt fell to 5.71 billion dollars from 6.34 billion dollars at year’s end, while cash climbed to 971 million dollars. These moves extended maturities, reduced reliance on short-term facilities, and improved the liquidity profile.

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Broader Market Context

Copper prices have strengthened through 2025, with provisional pricing and hedges tied to levels above 4.40 dollars per pound. This environment supports Kansanshi and Trident, where operating leverage remains meaningful even with elevated costs. The portfolio remains sensitive to commodity swings, but the macro setup leans favorable.

In the long term, copper demand remains tied to electrification, renewable energy, and global grid upgrades. First Quantum maintains one of the deepest copper project pipelines in the sector, yet those projects require balance-sheet flexibility and jurisdictional clarity. The company’s ability to advance them will depend on stabilizing earnings and working past the challenges tied to Panama.

1. The Balance Sheet Reset Is Underway

First Quantum used streaming and prepayment deals to stabilize liquidity and reduce short-term refinancing risk. The one-billion-dollar Kansanshi gold stream and two copper prepayment agreements added meaningful cash at a critical moment. New 2033 and 2034 notes also allowed the company to retire older 2027 and 2029 issues, extending its maturity profile. These moves ease immediate pressure and give management more room to focus on operations. The company also signals that balance-sheet repair remains a top priority heading into 2026.

Gross debt has now fallen by more than 600 million dollars year-to-date, while undrawn liquidity exceeds 1.7 billion dollars. The structure is still interest-heavy, but it is more stable than it was a year ago. This improved flexibility supports ongoing capital spending at Kansanshi and Trident without adding new balance-sheet strain. It also improves the company’s ability to manage volatility tied to Panama. Management has positioned this as a multi-step recovery rather than a quick fix.

2. Operation Without Cobre Panama

Zambia and Trident are now the core of the operating story. Kansanshi generated 476 million dollars in revenue and 107 million dollars in operating profit, while Trident added 492 million dollars and 77 million dollars, respectively. These assets remain cost-sensitive but continue to deliver positive cash flow at current copper prices. Their consistency helps offset depreciation, royalties, and general cost inflation. They also provide the foundation for the company’s current stabilization efforts.

Cobre Panamá remains on care-and-maintenance status. The site exported its remaining concentrate inventory under the Preservation and Safe Management plan, but it did not contribute new production. Care-and-maintenance spending reached $ 58 million for the quarter, underscoring the financial drag as legal and political processes continue. The approved plan and power-plant restart are constructive steps, but they do not change the fact that the mine’s future is uncertain. For now, the asset represents optional upside rather than operational support.

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3. Long-Term Copper Growth Through Global Projects

Kansanshi’s S3 expansion remains central to the company’s long-term outlook. The project aims to extend mine life and improve throughput, thereby strengthening unit economics. Its success also matters because future delivery obligations under the gold stream and copper prepayment agreements rely heavily on Kansanshi output. Management views S3 as a key step toward building a more predictable copper base. It also helps reduce reliance on a single region over time.

First Quantum also holds major development assets in South America. Taca Taca in Argentina, along with La Granja and Haquira in Peru, offer long-life copper growth opportunities with meaningful resource potential.

These projects are capital-intensive and require stable conditions, so they are long-term rather than near-term drivers. Their presence, however, gives the company real leverage over future copper deficits. They remain essential strategic assets as the company works through today’s challenges.

The TIKR Takeaway

First Quantum’s Q3 results reflect a company that is stabilizing but not fully recovered. Higher revenue and strong operating cash flow show that core assets can support the business, and debt reduction paired with longer-dated financing has meaningfully improved liquidity. The company has more breathing room today than it did a year ago.

At the same time, losses, heavy interest costs, and uncertainty over Panama keep the equity in high-risk territory. Investors get meaningful copper leverage and significant embedded project value. Still, they also face cash-intensive operations and a long list of external dependencies that can move the stock sharply in either direction.

Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold First Quantum Stock in 2025?

The shares offer real upside if copper prices stay strong and if progress continues, stabilizing the balance sheet and navigating Panama. Yet the risk profile remains elevated, and long-term projects still require resolution of today’s uncertainties. For most investors, this looks like a name best held with a careful eye on copper markets and political developments.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!