Key Stats for Six Flags Stock
- Price Change for Six Flags stock: -9.3%
- $FUN Share Price as of Nov. 10: $16.35
- 52-Week High: $50
- $FUN Stock Price Target: $30
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What Happened?
Six Flags (FUN) stock tumbled over 9% yesterday after the regional amusement park operator reported disappointing third-quarter results and slashed its full-year guidance.
The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $554 million for the quarter, essentially flat year-over-year and below the $565 million that analysts had expected.
Attendance rose just 1% while revenue fell 2%, as a sharp drop-off in September wiped out momentum from a solid July and August.
CEO Richard Zimmerman, who is preparing to transition out of the role, acknowledged that the company’s performance “has fallen short of our expectations” in 2025.
The culprit? A combination of factors, including aggressive pricing changes that moved too fast for consumers to absorb, reduced advertising spending that hurt demand, and a difficult operating environment for the company’s underperforming parks.
Six Flags now expects full-year adjusted EBITDA of $780 million to $805 million, down sharply from its original guidance of roughly $1.1 billion at the start of the year. That’s a $300 million miss, driven primarily by weaker-than-expected attendance across the portfolio.
Six Flags also revealed that its park portfolio has split into two distinct groups. Approximately 70% of property-level EBITDA is derived from “outperforming” parks that consistently deliver strong results.
The remaining 30% comes from “underperforming” parks that are dragging down overall performance.
Some of these underperforming properties may now be deemed “non-core” and sold off as Six Flags looks to streamline its portfolio and focus capital on its highest-potential assets.
CFO Brian Witherow said Six Flags is reevaluating pricing strategies, operating costs, capital allocation, and long-term market potential for each park.
Management is approaching the process “with objectivity and discipline,” and has already taken actions to monetize real estate in Northern California, Bowie, Maryland, and Richmond, Virginia.
October results offered a mixed picture as attendance over the five-week period ended November 2 fell 11% year-over-year to 5.8 million guests, though management noted last year’s October benefited from nearly perfect weather and attendance was up 20% in 2023 compared to 2022.
Against that 2022 baseline, this year’s October attendance was up 7%.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Six Flags Stock
Six Flags stock is getting hammered because investors are losing confidence in its ability to turn around its struggling parks.
Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from “Overweight” to “Equal Weight”, slashing its price target from $30 to $20. The bank cited headwinds like lower-than-expected pricing power, narrow operating windows, and consumer softness for lower-income households.
Goldman Sachs also cut its price target to $20, pointing to declining attendance and ongoing capital reinvestment needs.
Stifel reduced its target to $29 but maintained a Buy rating, expressing optimism for 2026 despite challenges in 2025.
Truist held steady with a $27 price target and Hold rating, while Texas Capital lowered its target to $26 but kept a Buy rating.
The most bullish call came from UBS, which maintained a Buy rating and $34 price target despite acknowledging the company is facing “intensifying competition for discretionary time and dollars.”
UBS noted that Six Flags management admitted its pricing strategy may have been “slightly aggressive without sufficient time to train the consumer.”
Six Flags tried to harmonize pricing across its legacy Six Flags and Cedar Fair properties after the merger closed last year.
In some markets, that meant raising prices and changing season pass structures too quickly. Consumers didn’t respond well. The company also shifted advertising spending from the third quarter to earlier in the year, which helped reduce costs but likely hurt demand in September.
The real issue is that Six Flags stock is betting on a turnaround that’s taking longer than expected. Management made big investments in underperforming parks in 2025—raising operating expenses to address deferred maintenance, improve ride uptime, and boost guest satisfaction.
But those investments didn’t deliver the immediate attendance growth it was counting on. One example in the earnings deck showed an underperforming park where year-to-date EBITDA fell significantly and margin contracted from 44% to 29%.
The good news is that the company’s best parks are thriving. Outperforming properties representing 70% of EBITDA saw double-digit margin improvement in the third quarter, driven by 5% attendance growth.
These parks “would be even stronger absent the significant impact of severe weather in the second quarter,” management noted. Several are on track for record or near-record performances this year.
Looking ahead, Six Flags is betting on better execution in 2026 as it just launched a new unified website, will complete migration to a single ticketing platform by year-end, and will roll out a new ERP system in early 2026.
Management said these integration milestones will deliver meaningful efficiencies and strengthen the infrastructure for growth.
Six Flags has no meaningful debt maturities until early 2027, but it’s currently sitting at roughly three times secured leverage. That’s comfortably below its five times covenant, but free cash flow generation needs to improve.
Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be around $400 million, down from earlier plans, but that’s still a big number for a company with $780 million to $805 million in expected EBITDA this year.
For now, Six Flags stock is betting on a recovery that keeps getting pushed further out. The company has the assets, the brand, and the infrastructure to succeed long-term.
But with attendance still down, pricing power limited, and underperforming parks weighing on results, investors are running out of patience.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
