Key Takeaways
- Rivian’s revenue rose 38% to $2.155 billion, beating the $1.984 billion consensus, as deliveries hit a record 19,248.
- The R2 became Rivian’s best seller in the quarter, and gross profit climbed to $176 million from $24 million.
- Volkswagen’s $1 billion loan and $250 million expected from Uber add funding as Georgia spending steps up in 2027.
- Rivian needs at least 25,193 fourth-quarter deliveries to reach its raised 67,000 to 70,000 range.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) has a hit on its hands. Now it has to show what each one costs to build.
The R2, which only started reaching customers in June, outsold both the R1 and Rivian’s delivery van in the third quarter. Revenue beat estimates, deliveries set a record, and management raised its 2026 outlook across the board.
Two partners are helping pay for the ramp. Volkswagen (VWAGY) funded a $1 billion, 10-year term loan in October, on top of the joint venture the two run. Rivian also says it’s on track to receive $250 million from Uber (UBER) by year-end, part of an investment of up to $1.25 billion through 2031.
“Customer and media feedback on R2 has been exceptional,” CEO RJ Scaringe said in the release.
Shares closed at $14 on Friday. They’ve bounced hard off a late October low but are still down about 12% over three months.
R2 took over in one quarter
The third quarter, by the numbers:
- Revenue rose 38% to $2.155 billion, beating the $1.984 billion consensus.
- Deliveries jumped 46% to 19,248, a company record.
- Net loss narrowed to $913 million, or $0.63 per share, from $1.17 billion.
Rivian lifted the bottom of its delivery range to 67,000, keeping 70,000 at the top. It also trimmed its adjusted EBITDA loss outlook to $1.75 billion to $1.85 billion and cut planned capex by $300 million at the midpoint.
Demand looks real. Demo drives topped 103,000 in the quarter, up from about 30,000 a year earlier.
Here’s what that did to the top line…
Scale is still the gap, though. Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the same quarter, about 25 times Rivian’s total.
Gross profit finally shows up
Gross profit rose to $176 million from $24 million a year earlier, an 8% gross margin. Software and services did a lot of the lifting.
That figure also absorbed about $120 million of extra cost from the R2 ramp. Add it back and the quarter’s margin would have been closer to 14%.
How far has margin actually traveled?
The catch is mix. Rivian is only selling the pricier R2 Performance through the end of 2026, while cheaper trims arrive through 2027. So today’s margin gets help from the top of the lineup.
Management is targeting positive automotive gross profit as it exits the fourth quarter. That is a narrower goal than a profitable full quarter, and investors should read it that way.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Rivian. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rivian, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rivian’s Analyst Ratings
The cash bill comes next
Rivian ended September with $5.5 billion in cash and short-term investments. Including the Volkswagen loan, pro forma liquidity stands at $7.1 billion.
That is a solid cushion against this year’s guided EBITDA loss and capex. But Rivian expects spending to step up meaningfully in 2027 as construction ramps at its Georgia plant, and it is doing all of this under an interim CFO, Derek Mulvey, after Claire McDonough left in August.
Wall Street’s free cash flow estimates show how long the burn lasts:
Shareholders have also paid for the ramp directly. Rivian sold 75 million shares at $15.50 in July, and the stock now sits below that price.
My take: The R2 launch is going better than I expected, and the guidance raise looks earned. Still, at $14 the stock is pricing real doubt about margins once the cheaper R2 trims arrive and Georgia capex kicks in. I’d want to see the gross profit trend hold through that mix shift before calling this a turnaround.
The next checkpoint is the early January delivery update. Rivian needs at least 25,193 fourth-quarter deliveries to hit the bottom of its range, and full-year results follow in February.
So what is Rivian stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
