Key Takeaways
- Vistra stock is up 11% in the past month (through Wednesday’s close), after a conditional $4.2 billion Energy Department loan and Constellation Energy’s nuclear deal with Google lifted power producers.
- The loan is a good deal for three plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but it comes with conditions and does nothing about the soft Texas power prices weighing on Vistra’s 2027 outlook.
- Analysts expect normalized EPS to more than double from 2025 to 2027, yet the stock trades at about 15x forward earnings, in line with its five-year average.
- Vistra updates its 2027 guidance with third-quarter results on Nov. 6, and the stock looks worth owning into that report.
Vistra (VST) is up 11% in the past month, while the S&P 500 went nowhere. That’s what’s left of a 21% five-session run in early October, sparked by a federal nuclear loan and fed by Constellation Energy (CEG).
Washington’s check comes with strings
On Oct. 2, Bloomberg reported that Washington planned a loan of roughly $4 billion for three Vistra nuclear plants. On Monday, the Energy Department made it official: a conditional commitment of up to $4.2 billion for 433 MW of uprates (projects that raise a reactor’s output) at Beaver Valley, Davis-Besse and Perry, plus an option on Comanche Peak in Texas. Vistra was up 6% before the open.
It’s a good deal: more output from reactors Vistra already owns, nearly 4 GW kept running, on government-backed money.
But Vistra still has to meet technical, legal, environmental and financial conditions first. And all three plants sit in PJM, where power prices were already firming up.
Google made it a sector trade
Before Tuesday’s open, Google and Constellation announced a 20-year deal that includes 890 MW from uprates at existing reactors. Constellation jumped more than 13%, and Vistra had its best day of the month, up 11%. The two fell together on Oct. 8 and Oct. 14, Vistra by more than 6% each time.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Vistra. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Vistra, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Vistra’s Analyst Ratings
Nov. 6 is about Texas
On Vistra’s Aug. 7 call, CEO Jim Burke said ERCOT prices had averaged $30 a megawatt hour so far in 2026, flat with 2025. CFO Kris Moldovan said 2027 adjusted EBITDA would trend toward the low end of its $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion range.
Vistra updates its 2027 guidance with third-quarter results on Nov. 6, unless its Cogentrix acquisition hasn’t closed. With Cogentrix and new data center contracts, a midpoint around $8.1 billion would suggest Texas hasn’t gotten worse.
The loan is a bonus
Analysts expect normalized EPS to more than double, from $4.76 in 2025 to $10.37 in 2027…
…yet Vistra trades at about 15x forward earnings, right at its five-year average.
So is the loan really that good? For those three plants, yes. But Texas moves this stock, and frankly it’s ont priced today for earnings to double. So I think Vistra is worth owning into Nov. 6.
Of course, if the 2027 midpoint lands well short of $8.1 billion and management blames Texas prices, the loan won’t help much.
So what is Vistra stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Vistra could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
