Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares are 25%+ below their June closing high, and Bank of America just raised its price target to $275, 73% above the stock’s last close.
- Third-quarter revenue jumped 161% to $14.6 billion, and management guided to $33 billion to $37 billion of revenue in the first quarter of 2027.
- BofA’s target works out to about 88x expected earnings over the next twelve months, against 51x today, while capex is set to reach $35 billion to $40 billion this quarter.
- The call looks plausible but stretched, and Starship’s Flight 15 next month and the fourth-quarter report are the next tests.
SpaceX (SPCX) still trades 25% below its June high, even after an 8% pop on its third-quarter results this week.
Bank of America sees an opportunity. Today it kept its Buy rating and raised its price target to $275 from $235, 73% above the stock’s close on Oct. 21. (And given the stock is down 5% today…well, that’s even a little more potential upside, isn’t it.)
Spending spooked the market
The post-IPO buzz faded fast. SpaceX hit its closing high of $201.80 on June 16, four days after it started trading, and slid through July.
Then its first report as a public company, on Aug. 4, showed second-quarter capex up sixfold from a year earlier to $18.4 billion, mostly for AI. The stock sank 13.6% the next day, to a $108.27 close. It has since climbed back to about where it closed on its first day of trading.
BofA’s eyes are on Starship
BofA pointed to a third quarter that beat expectations across the board, and to the company’s new guidance.
Revenue jumped 161% from a year earlier to $14.6 billion, with the Super Intelligence (AI) segment going from $813 million to $7.6 billion. And management now sees first-quarter 2027 revenue of $33 billion to $37 billion, more than double the third quarter’s.
BofA calls Starship’s Flight 15 the next big catalyst. Elon Musk said on the call that it’s expected next month and will try to catch both the booster and the ship, and BofA says a success could support weekly Starship launches in the first half of 2027.
TIKR tracks 38 analysts on SpaceX. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on SpaceX, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See SpaceX’s Analyst Ratings
Does $275 add up?
The Street has been moving BofA’s way. The average analyst target has more than doubled since SpaceX listed, from $114 to $253, and it was $221 as recently as Sept. 30…
(A handful of big targets pull that average up: the median is $226, and the range runs from $70 to $500.)
Analysts see SpaceX going from a small normalized loss in 2026 to $5.78 a share of earnings in 2028…
…and those estimates are rising fast: the 2027 consensus is nearly five times what it was 90 days ago, according to Yahoo Finance.
The multiple is the hard part. SpaceX trades at something like 51x forward earnings, and BofA’s $275 works out to about 88x.
Plausible, if the estimates keep rising
The risk is the spending (unless the ROI is crazy good). Capex was $19.6 billion in the third quarter, more than twice the $8.8 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and management expects $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth.
Still, BofA’s call looks plausible to me, if a stretch. The estimates are climbing, the guidance points to another big step up, and $275 isn’t far above the Street’s $253 average. But getting there in a year takes a lot more earnings growth, or a much richer multiple.
The next tests come quickly: Flight 15 next month, then the fourth-quarter report early next year, which will show whether SpaceX hit its goal of $100 billion in ARR by year-end. If both land, $275 starts to look a lot more reasonable.
So what is SpaceX stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
