Key Takeaways
- Vistra gained 5% today after Talen Energy guided 2027 adjusted EBITDA about 26% higher on PJM demand.
- Constellation Energy rose on the same news, and GE Vernova and Vertiv rallied on their own.
- Vistra’s East segment out-earned Texas in the first half of 2026, and it just added PJM gas plants.
- Analysts’ 2027 EBITDA estimate sits below Vistra’s own low end once its new deals count, leaving room to beat on Nov. 6.
Vistra (VST) gained 5% today with no news of its own. The lift came from Talen Energy (TLN), which guided 2027 adjusted EBITDA about 26% above this year’s.
Talen CEO Mac McFarland said the outlook “reflects strong PJM fundamentals and a full year of contributions from our recently acquired assets.” Vistra owns nuclear and gas plants in PJM too.
Talen climbed 8%, and Constellation Energy (CEG), whose nuclear plants also sell into PJM, rose 3%. It reports Nov. 9, after raising its 2026 guidance in August to $11.50-$12.50 of adjusted earnings a share. Does it raise again?
Power-equipment makers rallied on news of their own. GE Vernova (GEV) gained 6% after Eaton posted a record third quarter. Vertiv (VRT) rose 5% after Bernstein kept its Outperform rating, arguing the market may have overstated the political risk to US data-center construction.
Talen’s third-quarter adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled, to $669 million, on acquired plants and higher power and capacity prices.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Vistra. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Vistra, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Vistra’s Analyst Ratings
Vistra has the same setup
Vistra brings both into 2027. Its East segment, home to its PJM plants, earned $1.443 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the first half of 2026, against $897 million in Texas. And on Oct. 30 it closed its Cogentrix purchase, adding 5,496 MW of gas plants, 3,163 MW of them in PJM.
Analysts expect only about 10% EBITDA growth in 2027:
That $7.96 billion is below management’s own floor. Vistra’s 2027 range of $7.4-$7.8 billion leaves out about $700 million from its Cogentrix and Meta deals, so the low end with them is about $8.1 billion.
Texas is the catch: in August, Vistra’s CFO said 2027 was trending toward the low end on weaker Texas power forwards.
The stock traded at 13x forward earnings at Monday’s close, below its five-year average of 15x:
A low bar for Nov. 6
The way I see it, Vistra heads into Nov. 6 priced as if Talen’s PJM strength won’t show up in its numbers. Even after today’s move, it trades below its usual multiple.
Of course, if Vistra’s 2027 update lands under that $8.1 billion and blames Texas, that low multiple becomes a warning sign.
So what is Vistra stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Vistra could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
