Key Takeaways
- Shopify shares fell 10% after third-quarter GMV of $119.1 billion came in slightly below expectations, even though revenue grew 32%.
- Every AI agent channel Shopify has announced, including ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot and Meta’s Muse, runs through Shopify’s checkout at its usual rates.
- Shopify hasn’t said how much of its GMV comes through agents, and management has called the volume small.
- Analysts expect revenue growth to slow to 26% in 2027 and 2028, so agents are upside the stock isn’t paying for yet.
Shopify (SHOP) shares fell 10% this morning after its third-quarter report. On paper, the quarter looked fine: revenue rose 32%, the free cash flow margin hit 22% and GMV reached $119.1 billion.
That GMV figure was slightly below what analysts expected, and the market punished it.
The better line in the release came from Shopify President Harley Finkelstein. He said Shopify is “uncommonly good at operating in two realities at the same time: the world our merchants exist in today, and the one they are moving towards.”
The second reality is AI shopping agents. Finkelstein said Shopify keeps building “commerce into every surface, every agent, and increasingly, everywhere.”
Today, the market only cared about the first reality.
A small miss in a big quarter
GMV grew 29% in the third quarter, down from 32% in the second. Revenue landed inside management’s low-thirties guidance. In each of the three quarters before this one, revenue had beaten the top of the range.
Otherwise, it was a strong quarter. Operating income climbed 66% to $568 million. Free cash flow rose to $816 million, a 22% margin, up from 18% a year earlier. Gross profit grew a slower 28%, because lower-margin merchant solutions revenue grew 35% while subscriptions grew 20%.
Shopify also expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow at a low-thirties rate. That’s at or above the roughly 30% analysts expected going in.
TIKR tracks 54 analysts on Shopify. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Shopify, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Shopify’s Analyst Ratings
Every agent so far runs on Shopify’s checkout
Shopify has real numbers to show on agents. AI-driven orders to Shopify stores tripled year over year in the second quarter, after growing nearly 13x in the first.
ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot and Muse all check out through Shopify. Management says an order that comes in through an agent earns Shopify the same as an order on a merchant’s own store. Since Shopify’s Fall ’26 Edition came out on Oct. 28, Shop Pay also works inside personal AI agents, and CEO Tobi Lütke counts 400 million Shop Pay users.
Shopify also co-built a checkout protocol for agents with Google. Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce and Stripe have joined the council that runs it.
Small for now, and on other people’s terms
Shopify still hasn’t said how much of its GMV comes through agents, and management has called agent volume small next to the rest of its business.
The agents’ owners also set the terms. A leaked Muse checkout showed Meta Pay next to Shop Pay, and Amazon has blocked Muse from its own site.
Wall Street’s numbers leave room for agents
Before the report, analysts expected revenue to rise from $11.56 billion in 2025 to $19.22 billion in 2027 and $24.28 billion in 2028.
That means growth slows from 32% this year to 26% in each of the next two years. The GMV miss may cut the near-term numbers a little. But with a low-thirties guide for the fourth quarter, I don’t expect big cuts.
At Monday’s close, Shopify traded at 74x forward earnings. That’s right around its average since late 2023 and well below the 96x it reached at the end of 2025. At today’s price the multiple is lower still, and analysts expect earnings to grow about 33% a year, from $1.43 in 2025 to $3.36 in 2028.
So the market is paying an average multiple for a business the Street already expects to slow down. Agents are the clearest way Shopify could keep growing near 30%, and on today’s numbers, investors are getting them for free. That makes this drop look like an opportunity to me.
Of course, Shopify doesn’t control the terms. The thing to watch is the first figure Shopify gives for agents’ share of GMV, and whether Muse keeps Shop Pay as its default wallet. Fourth-quarter results, expected in mid-February, are the next chance to see both.
So what is Shopify stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
