Key Takeaways
- Verizon yields 6.1% and Realty Income 5.7%, so $10,000 in each pays $607 and $570 a year today.
- Realty Income’s dividend grew faster from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2025, 2.9% a year against Verizon’s 1.9%, and at those rates its yearly check would pass Verizon’s around 2033.
- Verizon’s dividend used 52% of free cash flow over the 12 months to Sept. 30, while Realty Income paid out 75% of its AFFO in fiscal 2025.
- SpaceX’s plan to launch a mobile service on its own airwaves is the main thing to watch for Verizon’s cash flow.
Verizon (VZ) shareholders had a rough Oct. 9. The stock fell 9% that day after SpaceX agreed to buy a nationwide portfolio of 800 MHz low-band spectrum from Grain Management for Starlink Mobile, its cellular service.
Realty Income (O), meanwhile, had a quieter fall. It announced its 136th dividend increase since its 1994 NYSE listing, lifting its monthly payment to $0.2715 a share.
With Verizon yielding 6.1% and Realty Income 5.7%, it’s a close call for an income investor: which one pays you more over the next 10 years?
| Metric | Verizon (VZ) | Realty Income (O) |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend yield | 6.1% | 5.7% |
| Annual dividend | $2.83 (quarterly) | $3.26 (monthly) |
| Dividend growth, fiscal 2020-2025 | 1.9% a year | 2.9% a year |
| Payout ratio, last reported | 52% cash dividend payout ratio (TTM to Sept. 30, 2026) | 75% AFFO payout ratio (fiscal 2025) |
| Payout ratio, forward (fiscal 2026 consensus) | 53% cash dividend payout ratio | 73% AFFO payout ratio |
| Net debt/EBITDA | 3.3x | 5.7x |
| Interest coverage | 4.3x | 2.4x |
Source: TIKR and StockAnalysis, as of Nov. 5, 2026.
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Verizon’s dividend has a wide cushion
Verizon’s wireless business is growing again. Mobility and broadband service revenue rose 2.9% to $23.5 billion in the third quarter of 2026. It added 406,000 postpaid phone customers in the quarter and raised its full-year target to 1.1 million to 1.2 million.
Free cash flow rose 12.1% to $7.8 billion in the quarter. Over the 12 months to Sept. 30, the dividend used a well-covered 52% of free cash flow, and analysts’ fiscal 2026 estimates put it at 53%. Management says it remains “committed to growing the dividend,” and that coverage gives it room to do so.
Free cash flow has covered the dividend every year since fiscal 2018, after falling short of it in fiscal 2016 and 2017:
The tightest year since was fiscal 2022, when the dividend took 77% of free cash flow.
The worry is SpaceX. On Oct. 23, Bloomberg reported SpaceX was in talks to access at least 80,000 US cell sites as a step toward becoming a fourth nationwide carrier.
Realty Income’s raises keep coming
Realty Income pays out a bigger share of what it brings in. Its dividend took 75% of AFFO in fiscal 2025, and analysts’ fiscal 2026 estimates put it at 73%. That’s reasonable for a REIT.
That ratio has come down from 83% in fiscal 2016 because AFFO per share grew faster than the dividend:
The latest quarter kept that going. AFFO per share rose 3.7% to $1.12 in the third quarter of 2026, and Realty Income raised its full-year AFFO guidance to $4.45-$4.46 a share, from $4.44-$4.45. Same-store rents are expected to rise just 1.1%-1.3% this year, so its growth depends on what it buys: it invested $2.6 billion in the quarter.
Realty Income says it has raised its dividend “for over 32 consecutive years.”
Debt is the soft spot. About $2.9 billion comes due in 2027 at a rate under 3%, and refinancing it will cost more with rates higher.
So which dividend wins?
I’d take Verizon: it pays you more over the next 10 years. At each stock’s dividend growth rate from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2025, $10,000 in Verizon pays about $6,628 over the decade, against about $6,507 in Realty Income, about $121 more.
At those rates, Realty Income’s yearly check passes Verizon’s in about 6.6 years, around 2033. By year 10 it pays about $738 to Verizon’s $722, a 7.4% yield on your original $10,000 against 7.2%. But Verizon’s bigger checks in the early years keep it ahead over the full decade.
Verizon’s 1.9% a year also looks like the easier rate to keep. Analysts expect its free cash flow to rise from $20.1 billion in fiscal 2025 to $23.7 billion in fiscal 2027:
(The fiscal 2028 estimate holds at $23.7 billion, from just six analysts.)
Realty Income’s dividend is safe too. Its payout ratio has drifted down for a decade, and it has paid 676 consecutive monthly dividends. It’s just that, for the next decade, Verizon’s bigger starting check and its wider cushion carry it.
Of course, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said on SpaceX’s Oct. 20 call that Starlink Mobile is targeting service on its own airwaves for early 2028. If that starts costing Verizon wireless customers, its raises could slow, and Realty Income could close a $121 gap.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
