Toast, Inc. (NYSE: TOST) has quickly become one of the most talked-about growth stories in restaurant technology. After a sharp rebound, the stock now trades near $36/share, up from recent lows of about $28. Rapid adoption across restaurants and expanding financial services have fueled the rise. But with growth starting to slow and profitability still thin, analysts appear divided on what comes next.
Recently, Toast reported strong Q2 2025 results, adding more than 8,000 new restaurant locations and pushing annualized recurring revenue past $1.9 billion, up 31% year-over-year. The company also introduced its next-generation handheld device, Toast Go 3, and announced a partnership with American Express to expand its payments ecosystem. These moves highlight Toast’s push to deepen its footprint and strengthen its path toward profitability.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Toast could trade by 2027. We have pulled together consensus price targets, growth forecasts, and valuation models to outline the stock’s potential trajectory. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Meaningful Upside
Toast trades at about $36/share today. The average analyst price target is $50/share, which points to nearly 40% upside. Forecasts show a wide spread and reflect divided sentiment:
- High estimate: $60/share
- Low estimate: $36/share
- Median target: $51/share
- Ratings: 12 Buys, 1 Outperform, 13 Holds, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell
It looks like analysts see some room for gains, but the broad range of targets suggests conviction is weak. The takeaway is that expectations are mixed, and Toast may need to deliver stronger profitability to justify sustained upside. For investors, the setup offers opportunity but also a high level of execution risk, since a miss on margins or revenue growth could push the stock closer to the low end of forecasts.
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Toast: Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s fundamentals still look attractive, but growth is expected to slow:
- Revenue growth forecast to ease to ~19.5% by 2027 (from 42.8% over the past three years)
- Operating margins projected to expand from breakeven to ~10.8%
- Shares trade at ~34x forward earnings
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 34x forward P/E suggests $52/share by 2027
- That implies ~47% upside, or about 19% annualized returns
These numbers suggest Toast can keep compounding steadily if it hits margin targets, but not at the hyper-growth pace of recent years. For investors, the valuation looks fair relative to growth, meaning the stock is not cheap, but not drastically overpriced either. Upside depends on Toast proving it can scale profitably, and investors will want to watch whether margins expand as quickly as forecasts imply.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Toast is building a stronger ecosystem by moving beyond hardware into payments and financial services, which could lift margins over time. Its installed base of restaurants keeps growing, and the stickiness of its platform makes customer churn less likely.
The latest results underline this progress, with strong new location growth, rising recurring revenue, and new partnerships that expand its reach. These factors explain why bulls see Toast as a long-term category leader.
For investors, the optimism rests on Toast evolving from a top-line growth story into a business with durable profitability.
Bear Case: Profitability and Competition
Despite the positives, Toast’s valuation still looks demanding compared to its thin profitability. Competition remains fierce, with Square (Block), Lightspeed, and Clover all investing heavily in restaurant solutions.
There is also the risk that restaurant spending softens in a weaker economy, reducing demand for Toast’s systems. Rising costs may also weigh on margins if they outpace revenue growth.
The bear case is that Toast’s current valuation assumes steady execution. For investors, that means the risk/reward profile remains fragile, and Toast’s growth story is far from guaranteed.
Outlook for 2027: What Could Toast Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 34x forward P/E suggests $52/share by 2027. That would represent about a 47% gain from today’s $36/share, or roughly 19% annualized returns. The scenario assumes ~20% annual revenue growth and operating margin expansion to about 11%.
While this would represent healthy performance, the outlook already builds in a fair amount of optimism. To deliver stronger upside, Toast would likely need to exceed expectations on profitability, adoption of its payments ecosystem, or expansion across restaurants. Without that, returns may be steady but not spectacular.
Toast looks like a potential long-term compounder, but the path to outsized returns depends on the company delivering on its margin story while defending market share.
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