The Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CG) has pulled back to about $52/share, down from its recent highs above $69. The broader slowdown in private equity fundraising and softer exits have weighed on sentiment. Still, analysts see potential for recovery as Carlyle’s credit and fee-based businesses continue to expand.
Recently, Carlyle announced new commitments across its private credit and infrastructure platforms, including a partnership with Japan’s largest pension fund to deploy capital into U.S. middle-market lending. The firm also closed nearly $30 billion in new capital commitments over the past year, underscoring renewed investor confidence in alternative assets despite higher interest rates. These moves highlight Carlyle’s push to scale durable, recurring revenue streams across multiple asset classes.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Carlyle could trade by 2027. We have combined consensus price targets and TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model to map out the stock’s potential path based on current expectations.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Modest Upside
Carlyle trades at about $52/share today. The average analyst price target is $66/share, which points to roughly 26% upside. Forecasts show a steady range, reflecting moderate but improving sentiment:
- High estimate: ~$77/share
- Low estimate: ~$51/share
- Median target: ~$67/share
- Ratings: 7 Buys, 2 Outperforms, 7 Holds, 1 Underperform
Analysts see modest upside potential as sentiment toward private markets gradually improves. For investors, this means the stock could outperform if fundraising momentum strengthens and fee-based income continues to grow steadily.
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Carlyle: Growth Outlook and Valuation
Carlyle’s fundamentals are improving, and its valuation remains reasonable:
- Revenue is projected to grow ~12% annually through 2027
- Operating margin is expected to hold around 39%
- Shares trade near 11× forward earnings, slightly below peers
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 10.8× forward P/E suggests ~$71/share by 2027
- That implies about 36% total return, or roughly 15% annualized
These figures suggest Carlyle can deliver healthy double-digit returns if execution remains consistent. For investors, the stock offers a mix of growth and value appeal, with fee-based income helping smooth performance across market cycles.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Carlyle’s growth engine is its rapidly expanding private credit business. Demand for alternative lending continues to rise as traditional banks retreat, creating a structural tailwind for firms with scale and relationships. The company’s fee-based revenues also provide steady cash flow even during quieter deal cycles.
Recent partnerships with large pension funds and insurance clients reinforce Carlyle’s shift toward long-duration capital. This strategy builds visibility into future earnings and reduces reliance on unpredictable investment exits.
For investors, these strengths show that Carlyle is evolving into a more stable, cash-generating asset manager with multiple levers for long-term growth.
Bear Case: Fundraising and Market Sensitivity
Despite these positives, fundraising remains Carlyle’s biggest challenge. Institutional investors are still selective, and the pace of new capital commitments has been slower than during the previous cycle. Higher rates have also made exits tougher, reducing realized performance fees.
Competition across private markets is intense, with major peers like Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo expanding aggressively into similar areas. That could limit Carlyle’s ability to scale as quickly or command premium fees.
For investors, the risk is that earnings growth could stall if fundraising does not reaccelerate or if credit spreads tighten. In that case, performance would depend more on steady fee income than market-driven appreciation.
Outlook for 2027: What Could Carlyle Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 10.8× forward P/E suggests Carlyle could trade near $71/share by 2027. That represents about a 36% gain from today, or roughly 15% annualized returns.
This scenario assumes stable margins and continued growth in fee-based income. If fundraising rebounds faster or credit deployment accelerates, upside could be even higher.
For investors, Carlyle appears to offer meaningful upside at current levels. The combination of attractive valuation, rising private credit demand, and a more diversified earnings mix makes it one of the more balanced opportunities among alternative asset managers heading into 2027.
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