Key Stats for TEX Stock
- 6-Month Performance: 31%
- 52-Week Range: $32 to $72
- Valuation Model Target Price: $82
- Implied Upside: 20%
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What Happened?
Terex Corporation stock is up about 31% over the last 6 months, recently trading near $69 per share, as investors responded to stronger earnings, accelerating order momentum, and the completed merger with REV Group.
Shares are holding close to their 52 week high of $72, reflecting sustained confidence in the company’s forward earnings outlook.
The rally gained traction because fourth quarter results and 2026 guidance reinforced improving revenue visibility and margin expansion potential. Terex reported Q4 net sales of $1.3 billion, up 6% year over year, with EPS of $1.12 and EBITDA of $141 million.
Companywide bookings reached $1.9 billion, up 32%, Environmental Solutions bookings rose 16%, and Aerials secured nearly $1 billion of new orders, up 46%, strengthening confidence in demand durability heading into 2026.
Management guided 2026 sales to $7.5 billion to $8.1 billion and pro forma EBITDA to $930 million to $1 billion, implying roughly $100 million of year over year EBITDA growth.
Specialty Vehicles enters the year with roughly two years of backlog coverage, while Environmental Solutions carries a $1.1 billion backlog.
CEO Simon Meester said the merger created “the most intrinsically synergistic, resilient and competitive portfolio in our history,” with $75 million of targeted run rate synergies by 2028.
Institutional flows added further support. LSV Asset Management increased its stake by 17.9% to 110,200 shares, Lodge Hill Capital boosted its position by 53.7% to 529,450 shares, Ballast Asset Management raised its holdings by 57% to 85,795 shares, and Retirement Systems of Alabama lifted its stake by 48.4% to 119,014 shares.
Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH expanded its position by 391.5% to 88,081 shares, while Greenhaven Associates trimmed its stake by 1.5% to 1,477,733 shares.
Institutional investors now own about 92.88% of Terex, even as insider Kieran Hegarty sold 11,980 shares at $69.24 for about $829,495, reducing his stake by 6.46%.
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Is TEX Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 5.7%
- Operating Margins: 11.8%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 11x
Revenue is projected to increase from $7.93 billion in 2026 to $9.98 billion by 2030, supported by infrastructure spending, fleet replacement demand in Aerials, and continued strength in utilities and Specialty Vehicles following the REV merger.
Margin expansion toward 11.8% depends on higher throughput in Environmental Solutions and Specialty Vehicles, pricing discipline in MP, and synergy realization tied to the $75 million run rate target.
Aerials stabilization after tariff headwinds also supports incremental operating leverage without requiring aggressive top line acceleration.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $82, implying about 20% upside from current levels, indicating the stock appears modestly undervalued.
In 2026, results are likely driven by backlog conversion, utilities capacity expansion of 20% to 30% over two years, and disciplined integration execution.
With Specialty Vehicles holding roughly two years of backlog and utilities benefiting from grid modernization tailwinds, earnings durability rather than multiple expansion is positioned to drive performance this year.
Terex trades at 14.13x forward earnings, leaving room for upside if margins recover toward prior cycle levels and order momentum remains intact.
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How Much Upside Does TEX Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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