Key Stats for AMTM Stock
- 6-Month Performance: 17%
- 52-Week Range: $16 to $38
- Valuation Model Target Price: $32
- Implied Upside: 6.5%
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What Happened?
Amentum Holdings stock is up about 17% in the last 6 months, recently trading near $30 per share, as investors responded to accelerating nuclear contract wins, steady demand across space and digital infrastructure programs, and improving margin performance.
The advance reflects growing confidence that the company’s backlog strength and shift toward higher-margin work can translate into stronger earnings through 2026.
This week’s earnings reinforced that move higher. Amentum reported Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $3.24 billion, normalized growth of about 3%, adjusted EBITDA of $263 million at an 8.1% margin, and adjusted EPS of $0.54, up 6% year over year.
CEO John Heller said “momentum continues to deliver,” as the company generated $3.3 billion in net bookings, grew backlog 4% to over $47 billion, lifted funded backlog 23% to $7 billion, and reaffirmed full-year guidance for revenue of $13.95 billion to $14.3 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.25 to $2.45.
Institutional activity has also supported sentiment. CenterBook Partners increased its stake 145.8% to 308,081 shares worth about $7.38 million, Public Sector Pension Investment Board raised its holdings 16.3% to 597,976 shares, and Oppenheimer & Co. expanded its position 723.8% to 75,483 shares.
Thrivent Financial for Lutherans added 118,306 shares to hold 1,805,411 shares valued at $43.24 million, while Lingohr Asset Management lifted its stake 1,650% to 175,000 shares.
Some firms trimmed exposure, including Telos Capital, Universal Beteiligungs, New York State Common Retirement Fund, and Coastal Bridge Advisors, leaving institutional ownership near 39.93%.
Taken together, the six-month rally reflects a market pricing in stronger execution across nuclear energy, space systems, and critical digital infrastructure.
With nearly $1 billion in nuclear awards during the quarter, $23 billion in proposals awaiting award, and margins expanding to 8.1%, the setup into 2026 centers on backlog conversion, continued mix improvement, and disciplined cost execution rather than rapid top-line acceleration.
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Is AMTM Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 1.9%
- Operating Margins: 5.3%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 11.0x
Revenue is projected to grow at a modest pace, reflecting normalization following recent contract transitions and a business model built on long-duration government programs rather than rapid commercial expansion.
With 95% of expected 2026 revenue coming from existing or recompete business, visibility remains high.
Margin expansion is the more important driver. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 8.1% in Q1, and management continues prioritizing higher-margin nuclear, space, and digital programs while reducing indirect spending and capturing cost synergies.
Even incremental margin improvement can materially lift earnings given the scale of the $14 billion revenue base.
The exit multiple assumption of 11.0x aligns closely with historical trading levels, indicating that valuation upside depends primarily on execution rather than multiple expansion. Forward earnings growth remains the core variable.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $32, implying about 6.5% upside from current levels, suggesting the stock appears fully valued to modestly overvalued today.
At current levels near $30, performance through 2026 will likely hinge on nuclear award ramp-ups, space systems growth, backlog conversion, and sustained margin discipline rather than rapid revenue acceleration.
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How Much Upside Does AMTM Stock Have From Here?
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- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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