Key Takeaways
- Strategy shares rose 7% today as Bitcoin and the broader market rallied after the midterm elections.
- CEO Phong Le ranked Strategy fourth among US stock sellers in 2026, calling it a “Bitcoin capital cycle.”
- Strategy’s bitcoin sits only modestly above its $75,451 average cost, and its leverage works both ways.
- BitMine rose with it, and MSCI’s Nov. 11 index decision is Strategy’s next test.
Strategy (MSTR) stock is up 7% today, riding a Bitcoin rally and a broad market lift after Tuesday’s midterm elections.
BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), which owns 4.9% of all ether, rode the same wave.
CEO Phong Le wrote on X that Strategy ranks fourth among US companies selling stock in 2026, behind only SpaceX, Alphabet and Intel, after finishing first in 2025.
“The AI investment cycle is massive. So is the Bitcoin capital cycle,” Le wrote.
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Strategy moves faster than Bitcoin
Bitcoin was up about 3.5% by midday, so today’s jump is roughly twice as big. That fits the balance sheet: Strategy’s bitcoin was worth 1.6x its common book value at June 30.
The cushion is thin, though. Monday’s filing shows 849,327 bitcoin at an average cost of $75,451 a coin, and even today’s rally only takes Bitcoin to around $80,500.
Strategy books bitcoin’s price swings as profit or loss, so analysts’ earnings estimates lurch between big gains and big losses:
Strategy needs its premium back
Strategy has raised about $21 billion from share sales this year, it said in its third-quarter results, and its diluted share count has nearly doubled since late 2024:
Those sales add bitcoin per share only when the stock trades well above its bitcoin’s value. Le put that multiple at 1.15x on the third-quarter call, under management’s 1.22x break-even. And preferred dividends of about $1.76 billion a year never stop.
BitMine runs the same playbook with ether. It jumped 8% today, and it said Monday it held 6,060,506 ether, after adding 8,573 last week. Its shares are also down 58% over the past year: the same leverage in reverse.
MARA Holdings (MARA) fell 3% even though it held 35,577 bitcoin at June 30. Bernstein cut its target to $10 from $17 after Gina Hinojosa defeated Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas, where MARA’s 2-gigawatt Matagorda County site still awaits ERCOT and interconnect approvals. Does a new governor slow those down? MARA reports on Nov. 9.
A good day on a thin cushion
The way I see it, today is the leverage paying off for Strategy shareholders. But with Bitcoin only modestly above cost and the stock under its break-even, I’d want the premium back before calling Le’s cycle healthy.
Next up: on Nov. 11, MSCI names the companies it’s dropping from its indexes under its new rule.
So what is Strategy stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
