Key Takeaways
- Sandisk shares fell 8% today as Democrats swept the Nov. 3 midterms.
- Investors fear tougher rules for the data-center build-out, plus signs that higher memory prices are hurting parts of the hardware market.
- Analysts still expect Sandisk’s earnings to more than triple in fiscal 2027, yet the stock trades as if the flash boom is near its peak.
- Sandisk’s fiscal second-quarter report in late January will show whether flash prices are still rising.
Sandisk (SNDK) fell 8% today, even as the S&P 500 rose 2%. Democrats won the House and the Senate in Tuesday’s midterms, and investors sold AI-infrastructure stocks on worries about tougher oversight and slower permits for data centers.
Another reason to sell
Sandisk holders were already having a rough week. The company beat estimates and announced an 8-for-1 split on Oct. 29, then sank as Kioxia, its joint-venture partner, warned that the flash price surge is fading.
Barron’s added a second worry this morning: signs that rising memory prices are hurting parts of the hardware market. Sandisk’s consumer revenue fell 29% from the prior quarter to $397 million in fiscal Q1 2027, and management said consumers are adjusting to higher prices.
Higher prices are also driving less of the growth. Management credited price with about two-thirds of fiscal Q4 2026’s sequential growth, and about 40% of fiscal Q1 2027’s.
Priced for the peak
Analysts haven’t cut their numbers. They expect normalized EPS of $227.80 in fiscal 2027 and $287.26 in fiscal 2028, up from $70.88 in fiscal 2026:
Sandisk traded at 4.4x forward earnings at Tuesday’s close, the low of the past year and far below its 11x average:
At today’s price, it’s even lower.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Sandisk. How many say “Buy”?
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The builders’ backlogs keep growing
The builders took the worst of it: Quanta Services (PWR) dropped 12% and Comfort Systems USA (FIX) fell 15%. Neither has seen a slowdown yet. Quanta reported a record $63.7 billion of total backlog at Sept. 30 and raised its 2026 outlook in its Oct. 29 results. Comfort Systems’ backlog climbed more than $8 billion from a year earlier, to $17.81 billion.
Will tougher oversight slow how fast that work turns into revenue? Their next reports, early next year, will start to answer that.
Eyes on January
Frankly, I think the selling has run ahead of the news. Hyperscalers won’t buy fewer flash drives because Democrats won the Senate, and at about 4x forward earnings, investors are already pricing in a turn that analysts haven’t put in their numbers.
If slower permits do drag on the AI build-out, though, Sandisk’s fastest-growing market slows with it: data center was 43.5% of fiscal Q1 2027 revenue.
The January report will show which way prices are heading, especially its guide for the March quarter, normally Sandisk’s weakest.
So what is Sandisk stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
